Maurice C. Goodman, Jonathan C. P. Reum, Cheryl L. Barnes, Andre E. Punt, James N. Ianelli, Elizabeth A. McHuron, Giulio A. De Leo, Kirstin K. Holsman
{"title":"预测物种分布范围变化时的气候变量选择和不确定性:东白令海案例研究","authors":"Maurice C. Goodman, Jonathan C. P. Reum, Cheryl L. Barnes, Andre E. Punt, James N. Ianelli, Elizabeth A. McHuron, Giulio A. De Leo, Kirstin K. Holsman","doi":"10.1111/faf.12875","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Species distribution models (SDMs) are critical to the adaptive management of fisheries under climate change. While many approaches projecting marine species range shifts have incorporated the effects of temperature on movement, there is a need to incorporate a wider suite of ecologically relevant predictors as temperature‐based SDMs can considerably under‐ or over‐estimate the rate of species responses to climate shocks. As a subarctic ecosystem at the sea ice margin, the Eastern Bering Sea (EBS) is warming faster than much of the global ocean, resulting in the rapid redistribution of key fishery and subsistence resources. To support long‐term planning and adaptation, we combine 40 years of scientific surveys with a high‐resolution oceanographic model to examine the effects of bottom temperature, oxygen, pH and a regional climate index (the extent of the EBS ‘cold pool’) on range projections through the end of the century. We use multimodel inference to partition uncertainty among earth systems models, climate scenarios and distribution model parameterizations for several ecologically and economically important EBS groundfish and crabs. Covariate choice is the primary source of uncertainty for most species, with models that account for spatial responses to the cold pool performing better and suggesting more extensive northward movements than alternative models. Models suggest declines in the probability of occurrence at low pH and oxygen concentrations for most species. We project shifts that are directionally consistent with, yet larger than those previously estimated for most species, suggesting that accounting for large‐scale climate variability in species distribution models may substantially alter range projections.","PeriodicalId":169,"journal":{"name":"Fish and Fisheries","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Climate Covariate Choice and Uncertainty in Projecting Species Range Shifts: A Case Study in the Eastern Bering Sea\",\"authors\":\"Maurice C. Goodman, Jonathan C. P. Reum, Cheryl L. Barnes, Andre E. Punt, James N. Ianelli, Elizabeth A. McHuron, Giulio A. De Leo, Kirstin K. Holsman\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/faf.12875\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Species distribution models (SDMs) are critical to the adaptive management of fisheries under climate change. While many approaches projecting marine species range shifts have incorporated the effects of temperature on movement, there is a need to incorporate a wider suite of ecologically relevant predictors as temperature‐based SDMs can considerably under‐ or over‐estimate the rate of species responses to climate shocks. As a subarctic ecosystem at the sea ice margin, the Eastern Bering Sea (EBS) is warming faster than much of the global ocean, resulting in the rapid redistribution of key fishery and subsistence resources. To support long‐term planning and adaptation, we combine 40 years of scientific surveys with a high‐resolution oceanographic model to examine the effects of bottom temperature, oxygen, pH and a regional climate index (the extent of the EBS ‘cold pool’) on range projections through the end of the century. We use multimodel inference to partition uncertainty among earth systems models, climate scenarios and distribution model parameterizations for several ecologically and economically important EBS groundfish and crabs. Covariate choice is the primary source of uncertainty for most species, with models that account for spatial responses to the cold pool performing better and suggesting more extensive northward movements than alternative models. Models suggest declines in the probability of occurrence at low pH and oxygen concentrations for most species. 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Climate Covariate Choice and Uncertainty in Projecting Species Range Shifts: A Case Study in the Eastern Bering Sea
Species distribution models (SDMs) are critical to the adaptive management of fisheries under climate change. While many approaches projecting marine species range shifts have incorporated the effects of temperature on movement, there is a need to incorporate a wider suite of ecologically relevant predictors as temperature‐based SDMs can considerably under‐ or over‐estimate the rate of species responses to climate shocks. As a subarctic ecosystem at the sea ice margin, the Eastern Bering Sea (EBS) is warming faster than much of the global ocean, resulting in the rapid redistribution of key fishery and subsistence resources. To support long‐term planning and adaptation, we combine 40 years of scientific surveys with a high‐resolution oceanographic model to examine the effects of bottom temperature, oxygen, pH and a regional climate index (the extent of the EBS ‘cold pool’) on range projections through the end of the century. We use multimodel inference to partition uncertainty among earth systems models, climate scenarios and distribution model parameterizations for several ecologically and economically important EBS groundfish and crabs. Covariate choice is the primary source of uncertainty for most species, with models that account for spatial responses to the cold pool performing better and suggesting more extensive northward movements than alternative models. Models suggest declines in the probability of occurrence at low pH and oxygen concentrations for most species. We project shifts that are directionally consistent with, yet larger than those previously estimated for most species, suggesting that accounting for large‐scale climate variability in species distribution models may substantially alter range projections.
期刊介绍:
Fish and Fisheries adopts a broad, interdisciplinary approach to the subject of fish biology and fisheries. It draws contributions in the form of major synoptic papers and syntheses or meta-analyses that lay out new approaches, re-examine existing findings, methods or theory, and discuss papers and commentaries from diverse areas. Focal areas include fish palaeontology, molecular biology and ecology, genetics, biochemistry, physiology, ecology, behaviour, evolutionary studies, conservation, assessment, population dynamics, mathematical modelling, ecosystem analysis and the social, economic and policy aspects of fisheries where they are grounded in a scientific approach. A paper in Fish and Fisheries must draw upon all key elements of the existing literature on a topic, normally have a broad geographic and/or taxonomic scope, and provide general points which make it compelling to a wide range of readers whatever their geographical location. So, in short, we aim to publish articles that make syntheses of old or synoptic, long-term or spatially widespread data, introduce or consolidate fresh concepts or theory, or, in the Ghoti section, briefly justify preliminary, new synoptic ideas. Please note that authors of submissions not meeting this mandate will be directed to the appropriate primary literature.