Improving Prognostic Value in Invasive Triple Negative Breast Cancer Through a Combined Nomogram Approach.

Objectives: To investigate the potential prognostic value of ultrasound (US) features in conjunction with pathological markers and to develop a preliminary working model for predicting poor outcomes in patients with invasive triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC).

Methods: From January 2012 to December 2018, we enrolled 209 TNBC patients treated with standard therapy, systematically gathered data on US parameters, stromal tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs), lymphovascular invasion (LVI) status, and other relevant information, and recorded follow-up data. A nomogram combining AJCC staging with US score, stromal TILs, and LVI was constructed and validated to predict poor outcomes, defined as recurrence or death, in patients with invasive TNBC.

Results: The US score of 4 was best related to poor outcomes in patients with TNBC (HR 3.87, P = .015). In the training set, the nomogram had a considerably greater prognostic value [area under the curve (AUC), 0.74 vs. 0.64, P = .045] than AJCC staging alone, and it was comparable to that of the validation set (AUC, 0.71 vs. 0.63, P = .804). An acceptable consistency between the nomogram-predicted and actual survival probabilities was found both in the training and validation sets, with Brier scores of 0.15 and 0.13, respectively.

Conclusions: The incorporation of AJCC stage with US score, stromal TILs, and LVI improved the model performance for predicting poor outcomes in patients with invasive TNBC compared to routine AJCC staging alone.