Non-HDL Cholesterol May Be Preferred over Apolipoprotein B-100 for Risk Assessment when Evaluated by Receiver Operator Characteristic Curve Analysis.

Background: Most studies found that apolipoprotein B (apo B)-100 is a superior marker for coronary risk to non-high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol (C). Usually, studies use multivariant analysis with single-point odds/risk ratios. In multivariant analysis, when variables are highly correlated they are difficult to interpret. Effects cannot be well discriminated.

Methods: Brief review and examination of diagnostic sensitivity and specificity by receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves at decision levels so that discrimination can be well compared. Since apo B has additional expense, clinical value should be compared in an appropriate format. Apo B and cholesterols were measured in 382 angiographically defined patients.

Results: Non-HDLC and apo B were stronger markers than low-density lipoprotein (LDL)C, when examined by logistic regression, but as a result of strong collinearity, non-HDLC appeared weaker than LDLC in the presence of apo B, based on P values. This was true when analyzed with and without nonlipid risk factors. On ROC analysis, apo B and non-HDLC showed stronger C statistics than LDLC and total C. When analyzed alone apo B showed about 6.1% greater sensitivity than non-HDLC. After adjustment for nonlipid risk factors, the C statistics for apo B and non-HDLC were 0.74 and 0.73, and there was little difference in diagnostic specificity.

Conclusions: Risk is calculated from an algorithm that includes nonlipid risk factors similar to those examined here along with cholesterols. When assessed by the 10-year screening algorithm, these data support the view that non-HDLC would be less expensive than apo B with similar clinical efficacy.