Study on multi-agent evolutionary games promoting “distributed photovoltaics and electric heating” in rural areas: A case study in Xi’an, China, a pilot city for clean heating

In China, promoting a combined system of “distributed photovoltaics and electric heating” is crucial to address the unsustainable nature of rural clean heating once related subsidies are cancelled. During the process of aligning stakeholders' decisions to maximize benefits, challenges such as information asymmetry and the lack of a suitable business model can impact the stability of the promotion mechanism for the combined system. Hence, this study, which considers the role of village collectives, develops various business models and establishes an evolutionary game model to examine the equilibrium states of the government, integrated energy service providers, village collectives, and rural households in different scenarios using a typical rural area in Xi’an as a case study. It concludes that the involvement of various stakeholders is crucial for the widespread adoption of the combined system. The product-oriented business model, characterized by joint investments from households and integrated energy service providers, and the rental-oriented business model, with investment solely from energy service providers, are suitable business models for promoting the combined system. Increasing the revenues of village collectives can enhance the willingness of integrated energy service providers and rural households to participate. For systems exceeding 9 kW, a product-oriented business model is appropriate if the investment ratio of rural households surpasses 30% or if rooftop rent is below 90 yuan/kW/year. For systems under 9 kW, the thresholds are a 20% investment ratio or rent below 150 yuan/kW/year. Otherwise, a rent-oriented business model will be more suitable for various stakeholders.