Strategic Incentives for Adopting the Global Minimum Tax

The USA, alongside many other nations, presently faces a vital policy choice: should it adopt the global minimum tax proposed by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, purportedly to ensure basic levels of corporate taxation of large multinationals? I set out a framework for analyzing and predicting global minimum tax adoption by self-interested, national-income-maximizing governments. Contrary to both popular and prior scholarly claims, the global minimum tax is incentive incompatible: countries from which multinationals originate will likely suffer deep losses; the tax’s purported enforcement tool, even read in an aggressive, controversial fashion, is ineffective. The global minimum tax may unravel despite initial adoption. (JEL codes: F23, F55, H25, H73, H87, K34).