了解印度前列腺癌的当前趋势和发病率预测：对来自全球疾病负担研究的国家和区域数据的综合分析（1990 -2021）。

IF 2.4 3区医学 Q3 ONCOLOGY

Cancer Epidemiology Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI:10.1016/j.canep.2024.102719

Vijay Kumar , Quazi Syed Zahiruddin , Diptismita Jena , Suhas Ballal , Sanjay Kumar , Mahakshit Bhat , Shilpa Sharma , M.Ravi Kumar , Sarvesh Rustagi , Abhay M. Gaidhane , Lara Jain , Sanjit Sah , Muhammed Shabil

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引用次数: 0

摘要

背景：本研究旨在利用全球疾病负担（GBD） 2021研究的数据，探讨1990年至2021年印度邦一级前列腺癌（PC）的负担和趋势。方法：分析印度各邦和联邦属地PC的健康指标，包括每10万人的年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）、患病率（ASPR）、残疾调整生命年（ASDR）和死亡率（ASMR）。连接点回归分析用于确定这些指标随时间的显著变化。利用自回归综合移动平均（ARIMA）模型对ASIR进行投影。结果：PC的年龄分布在ASIR、ASPR、ASDR、ASMR年龄组中呈增加趋势，以75 ~ 79岁年龄组居多。1990-2021年，ASIR、ASPR、ASMR和ASDR的年均百分比变化（AAPC）分别增加了157 %、278 %、76 %和58 %。预测显示，到2031年，ASIR将进一步上升至9.15 / 10万。连接点分析显示，1992年至1995年期间，所有健康指标的年百分比变化（APC）最高。尽管考虑到地区差异，古吉拉特邦在所有健康指标中显示出最高的总百分比变化，但德里和喀拉拉邦的总体变化仍然最高。结论：该研究强调了印度PC负担的增加，强调了改进诊断实践、本地化筛查指南和有针对性的公共卫生干预措施的必要性。

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Understanding current trends and incidence projections of prostate cancer in India: A comprehensive analysis of national and regional data from the global burden of disease study (1990 –2021)

Background

The study aims to explore the burden and trends of prostate cancer (PC) in India at the state level from 1990 to 2021, using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study.

Methods

The health metrics including age-standardised incidence rates (ASIR), prevalence rates (ASPR), disability-adjusted life years (ASDR), and mortality rates (ASMR) per 100,000 for PC were analysed across Indian states and union territories. Join point regression analysis was employed to identify significant changes in these metrics over time. Projection of ASIR were done using auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model.

Results

The age-wise distribution of PC showed increased in ASIR, ASPR, ASDR, ASMR among older age, majorly in the 75–79 years age group. From 1990–2021, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in ASIR, ASPR, ASMR and ASDR increased by 157 %, 278 %, 76 % and 58 % respectively. Projections indicate a further rise in ASIR to 9.15 per 100,000 by 2031. The join point analysis showed the highest annual percentage change (APC) between 1992 and 1995 period in all health metrics. Despite Gujarat state showing the highest total percentage change in all health metrics when considering regional variations, Delhi and Kerala still remain the highest overall.

Conclusion

The study emphasises the growing burden of PC in India, highlighting the need for improved diagnostic practices, localized screening guidelines, and targeted public health interventions.

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来源期刊

Cancer Epidemiology 医学-肿瘤学

CiteScore

4.50

自引率

3.80%

发文量

200

审稿时长

39 days

期刊介绍： Cancer Epidemiology is dedicated to increasing understanding about cancer causes, prevention and control. The scope of the journal embraces all aspects of cancer epidemiology including: • Descriptive epidemiology • Studies of risk factors for disease initiation, development and prognosis • Screening and early detection • Prevention and control • Methodological issues The journal publishes original research articles (full length and short reports), systematic reviews and meta-analyses, editorials, commentaries and letters to the editor commenting on previously published research.