Runsi Wang, Yunfeng Wang, Jiapeng Lu, Yichong Li, Chaoqun Wu, Yang Yang, Jianlan Cui, Wei Xu, Lijuan Song, Hao Yang, Wenyan He, Yan Zhang, Xingyi Zhang, Xi Li, Shengshou Hu
{"title":"预测2020 - 2030年中国心血管疾病风险和负担：基于全国队列的模拟研究","authors":"Runsi Wang, Yunfeng Wang, Jiapeng Lu, Yichong Li, Chaoqun Wu, Yang Yang, Jianlan Cui, Wei Xu, Lijuan Song, Hao Yang, Wenyan He, Yan Zhang, Xingyi Zhang, Xi Li, Shengshou Hu","doi":"10.1136/heartjnl-2024-324650","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains a significant public health challenge in China. This study aimed to project the burden of CVD from 2020 to 2030 using a nationwide cohort and to simulate the potential impact of various control measures on morbidity and mortality.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>An agent-based model was employed to simulate annual CVD incidence and mortality from 2021 to 2030. The effects of different prevention and treatment interventions, modelled on international strategies, were also explored.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The study included 106 259 participants. The annual CVD incidence rate is projected to increase from 0.74% in 2021 to 0.97% by 2030, with age-standardised and sex-standardised rates rising from 0.71% to 0.96%. CVD mortality is expected to rise from 0.39% in 2021 to 0.46% in 2024, after which it will stabilise at 0.44% by 2030. Community-based interventions and improved access to inpatient care are predicted to reduce the projected burden of CVD significantly.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The incidence of CVD in China is projected to increase steadily over the next decade, while mortality will plateau after 2024. Comprehensive interventions, including community-based screenings and enhanced healthcare access, could significantly mitigate the CVD burden.</p><p><strong>Trial registration number: </strong>NCT02536456.</p>","PeriodicalId":12835,"journal":{"name":"Heart","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.1000,"publicationDate":"2024-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Forecasting cardiovascular disease risk and burden in China from 2020 to 2030: a simulation study based on a nationwide cohort.\",\"authors\":\"Runsi Wang, Yunfeng Wang, Jiapeng Lu, Yichong Li, Chaoqun Wu, Yang Yang, Jianlan Cui, Wei Xu, Lijuan Song, Hao Yang, Wenyan He, Yan Zhang, Xingyi Zhang, Xi Li, Shengshou Hu\",\"doi\":\"10.1136/heartjnl-2024-324650\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains a significant public health challenge in China. This study aimed to project the burden of CVD from 2020 to 2030 using a nationwide cohort and to simulate the potential impact of various control measures on morbidity and mortality.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>An agent-based model was employed to simulate annual CVD incidence and mortality from 2021 to 2030. The effects of different prevention and treatment interventions, modelled on international strategies, were also explored.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The study included 106 259 participants. The annual CVD incidence rate is projected to increase from 0.74% in 2021 to 0.97% by 2030, with age-standardised and sex-standardised rates rising from 0.71% to 0.96%. CVD mortality is expected to rise from 0.39% in 2021 to 0.46% in 2024, after which it will stabilise at 0.44% by 2030. Community-based interventions and improved access to inpatient care are predicted to reduce the projected burden of CVD significantly.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The incidence of CVD in China is projected to increase steadily over the next decade, while mortality will plateau after 2024. Comprehensive interventions, including community-based screenings and enhanced healthcare access, could significantly mitigate the CVD burden.</p><p><strong>Trial registration number: </strong>NCT02536456.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":12835,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Heart\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":5.1000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-12-05\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Heart\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1136/heartjnl-2024-324650\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"CARDIAC & CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Heart","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1136/heartjnl-2024-324650","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"CARDIAC & CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Forecasting cardiovascular disease risk and burden in China from 2020 to 2030: a simulation study based on a nationwide cohort.
Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains a significant public health challenge in China. This study aimed to project the burden of CVD from 2020 to 2030 using a nationwide cohort and to simulate the potential impact of various control measures on morbidity and mortality.
Methods: An agent-based model was employed to simulate annual CVD incidence and mortality from 2021 to 2030. The effects of different prevention and treatment interventions, modelled on international strategies, were also explored.
Results: The study included 106 259 participants. The annual CVD incidence rate is projected to increase from 0.74% in 2021 to 0.97% by 2030, with age-standardised and sex-standardised rates rising from 0.71% to 0.96%. CVD mortality is expected to rise from 0.39% in 2021 to 0.46% in 2024, after which it will stabilise at 0.44% by 2030. Community-based interventions and improved access to inpatient care are predicted to reduce the projected burden of CVD significantly.
Conclusions: The incidence of CVD in China is projected to increase steadily over the next decade, while mortality will plateau after 2024. Comprehensive interventions, including community-based screenings and enhanced healthcare access, could significantly mitigate the CVD burden.
期刊介绍：
Heart is an international peer reviewed journal that keeps cardiologists up to date with important research advances in cardiovascular disease. New scientific developments are highlighted in editorials and put in context with concise review articles. There is one free Editor’s Choice article in each issue, with open access options available to authors for all articles. Education in Heart articles provide a comprehensive, continuously updated, cardiology curriculum.
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