Tasmanian Politics January to June 2024

The political highlight of the period was the early state election. There were also three Legislative Council seats up for ballots in May, the continuing charges against a Supreme court judge, the ongoing football stadium controversy, as well as significant concerns for the economy and education, and the demise of an infamous bronze statue.

Tasmania retained the nation's only Liberal government following the snap state election held a year early on 23 March. Premier Jeremy Rockcliff called the poll following the defection of two former liberals to the cross-bench, which had plunged the government into a minority of eleven in the twenty-five-seat House of Assembly. Pointedly, out of the seven MHAs who had resigned since 2021, six were Liberals. Despite Rockcliff's call for a “strong majority Liberal government,” the election resulted in a continued minority Liberal government, with only fourteen seats in the expanded 35-seat parliament, which returned to its pre-1998 configuration of five 7-member electorates. Key reasons for the restoration of seats were the dearth of potential Cabinet members and high ministerial workloads in the smaller house.

Labor secured two seats in each electorate for a total of ten, leaving a diverse cross-bench of a record eleven that included five Greens, three from the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN), plus three left-leaning independents. The North–South chasm remained evident with most of the Liberals and all of the JLN members elected from the North, while most of the Greens and independents were elected from the South. It was especially notable that two Greens were elected in the Hobart seat of Clark, an unprecedented outcome in a single electorate. Sustainability-focused fisherman Craig Garland, who was the last elected in Braddon, was an exception as an independent standing against the ebbing Liberal tide in the North–West, while Cecily Rosol was atypical as a winning Green in Bass (TEC, 31 March). Ironically, the five Greens was the same number that had led the major parties to collude in reducing parliament to twenty-five seats in 1998 so as to raise quotas and deny opportunities for minor parties.

Issues prominent during the campaign included health, especially access to bulk-billing general practitioners and ambulance ramping at hospitals, as well as housing, and significantly, the Australian Football League (AFL) stadium planned for Hobart's Macquarie Point. The Liberals proposed to solve the ambulance ramping dilemma by simply forbidding it, which did have some subsequent success. The stadium was conspicuously less supported in the North and was opposed by Labor and the Greens, a disadvantage to the government according to Liberal strategist, Brad Stansfield (Mercury, 23 March). However, the idea of a Tasmanian AFL team did find broad support. Interestingly, the JLN representatives had run on a platform of “no policies” instead relying on a promise to closely scrutinise government proposals.

Labor leader Rebecca White ruled out seeking cross-bench backing to try and form government, based on existing Tasmania branch policy of no deals with other parties. She subsequently resigned as leader after three election losses, in 2018, 2021, and 2024. She was replaced unopposed by former Kingborough mayor, Dean Winter, who had the support of both Labor's Right faction and the parliamentary party.

Only five days before the state election, and to the chagrin of some politicians due to its timing, the new Tasmanian AFL side, the “Tasmanian Devils,” was launched in several locations around the state. This bizarrely followed negotiations with Warner Brothers, who held a trademark on the name associated with the “Taz” cartoon character. Membership levels reached 120,000 in two days, a new AFL record (news.com.au, 20 March), although the minimal ten dollar fee no doubt contributed to its success. Richmond Football Club CEO Brendon Gale, a former Tasmanian, subsequently announced he was to be the inaugural CEO for the new club in early 2025.

Legislative Council elections for three southeastern seats were held on 4 May, two of which continued the long tradition of local government mayors winning seats in the upper house:

Prosser was retained by the Liberals despite the lack of popular incumbent Jane Howlett who had moved to the lower house. Sorell mayor, Kerry Vincent, defeated Labor's former leader, Bryan Green 52.9–47.1 per cent in the final result, a slight improvement for the Liberals. Although Shooters party Phillip Bigg received the third highest primary vote of 12.4 per cent, he received few preferences and ultimately finished fourth behind progressive independent Professor Pam Sharpe.

Elwick, the Labor-leaning northern suburbs seat in greater Hobart returned an independent after Labor's former incumbent Josh Willey was elected to the lower house. Glenorchy mayor, Bec Thomas, ultimately prevailed over Tessa McLaughlin (ALP) 53.3–46.7 per cent. Former Labor member and prominent barrister Fabiano Cangelosi split the Labor vote with 18.7 per cent of primaries compared with 28.4 per cent for McLaughlin, while Janet Shelly of the Greens gained more than 20 per cent of primaries out of 18,300 votes cast.

Hobart, one of Australia's greenest electorates, was vacated by incumbent and former Lord Mayor Rob Valentine, and easily won by former MHA Greens leader Cassy O'Connor with 59.7 per cent of the final vote over second placed independent city councillor John Kelly on 40.3 per cent. In a left of centre avalanche, former Tasmanian of the year, Labor's John Kamara with 18.6 per cent of primaries was third, and independent Tascoss activist Charlie Burton with 13.6 per cent of primaries was fourth (TEC, 20 May). As a result, the chamber overall became four Liberal, three Labor, seven independents and one Green, a Green gain at the expense of Labor and the first time a Green had won an upper house seat.

Supreme court judge Justice Gregory Geason remained suspended on the public purse on full salary after allegations involving domestic violence the previous November proceeded at a snail's pace through the Tasmanian judicial system. In April he was scheduled to face charges of violence and harassment in Tasmania in July, and was also before the court in New South Wales on similar related issues (news.com.au, 18 April). In Hobart, Geason was defended by barrister and Legislative Council candidate for Elwick, Fabiano Cangelosi.

A major study of Australian schools found that Tasmanian students face significantly higher rates of bullying than any other jurisdiction (SBS, 21 May). The Australian Council for Educational Research (ACER) released an analysis of the 2022 OECD Programme for International Student Assessment results. More than 13,000 students were interviewed. It found that while national school bullying rates were second highest among twenty-four comparable OECD countries, Tasmanian rates were the highest in each category across the nation. Categories included frequently having belongings destroyed or stolen (8 per cent), being threatened (9 per cent), being hit or pushed (10 per cent), and being made fun of (24 per cent). Education minister Jo Palmer made no comment on the findings. However, Clark independent Kristie Johnson later successfully moved for a parliamentary inquiry into the related matter of discrimination in schools saying that the amount of bullying was “totally unacceptable” (Mercury, 13 June).

At about the same time as the bullying revelations, the Productivity Commission released its 2024 report on government services, which showed that Tasmanian educational performance significantly lagged all other jurisdictions but for the Northern Territory. Only 53 per cent of students graduated from year 12 in 2022, down from 57.7 per cent in 2021, and against a national average of 76 per cent. Attendances declined significantly over the past ten years, while staff–student ratios were among the lowest in the nation. Labor's Josh Willey pointed to these failures and minister Roger Jaensch admitted that “more needed to be done,” while highlighting staff recruitment as well as the extension of all high schools to years 11 and 12 under the Liberals (Pulse Tasmania, 7 February). Tellingly, 43 per cent of Tasmanian students were of “low socio-economic advantage” compared with 31 per cent nationally (Mercury, 29 May), which pointed to poverty as an underlying cause of these figures. New education minister Jo Palmer subsequently announced an enquiry into education that would be conducted by former NT education chief, Vicki Bayliss.

Clarence mayor and former Liberal Senate staffer, Brendan Blomeley, was involved in a dispute with the state Liberal executive over party loyalty as he considered running as an independent Liberal in the state elections. Earlier he had failed to get endorsement for the Liberal Senate ticket, and was again overlooked for House of Assembly endorsement for the seat of Franklin, at least partly on the basis that he had failed to disclose a previous conviction for breach of an apprehended violence order. He was expelled from the party by president Michael McKenna over his perceived disloyalty in April. Subsequently a meeting of 85 rank and file members unanimously backed a motion that he be reinstated, but he remained outside the party (Mercury, 24 April).

In another Liberal administrative issue, sitting Braddon MHR Gavin Pearce announced he would not recontest his seat at the next federal election. Pearce had held the seat with an increased margin in 2022 and was well-regarded by potential rivals within the party. Unfortunately for the Liberals, the surprise announcement meant that no one had nominated for preselection to the seat, which had closed two weeks earlier (Advocate, 11 June). However, McKenna subsequently announced that nominations for the position would be reopened, with the federal election due by September 2025 (Mercury, 12 June).

On the first day of the new parliament, the Liberal government lost the speakership when it decided not to renominate Lyons MP Mark Shelton to continue in the position. The decision was made after it became clear that the entire crossbench would back Labor's nominee. Veteran Labor MP for Bass, Michelle O'Byrne, was duly elected unopposed (ABC, 14 May). The House subsequently adopted gender-neutral language for its presiding officer, ending a 167-year-old tradition, whereby Speakers were no longer to be addressed as “Mr Speaker” or “Madam Speaker”, instead referred to as “Speaker” or “Honourable Speaker” (Pulse Tasmania, 13 June). The new Speaker further determined that the standards in parliament were to be improved, declaring that interruptions would no longer be tolerated. Only the words “hear, hear,” or “shame” could be interjected during debate. Her brother, independent MHA for Franklin, David O'Byrne, immediately called out “shame.”

What minority government could mean was illustrated the following month. Two consecutive bills passed the lower house against the wishes of the Liberal government, which had been prevaricating on both issues. Labor's bill to introduce industrial manslaughter legislation was passed making it the last jurisdiction to do so, while a few hours later the Greens were able to pass a bill to repeal the offence of begging, which had been on the books since the Great Depression (ABC News, 20 June).

The AFL stadium controversy continued to fester with advocates of the original “1.0” proposal including sports minister Nic Street opposing “2.0” advocates of private sector involvement. The latter included former Labor premier Paul Lennon as part of the consortium, the RSL, and the Tourism Industry Council, as well as many letter writers to the Hobart Mercury during the period. Others, especially northerners who lamented its location in the south, continued to be bewildered as to why the stadium was needed at all given viable revitalisations of both existing Bellerive and Launceston venues. Following opposition to the proposal, however, new Labor leader Dean Winter announced that his party would in future support the stadium in one or other of its forms, on the basis of the jobs it would create (ABC, 5 May). To further complicate the situation, a third proposal for a stadium to be located at Elwick racecourse was released in May, only to be immediately rejected by the government, as well as the Tasmanian Racing Club which owns the site (ABC, 26 May). The following month, the RSL and the Greens announced that would escalate their opposition to the proposed 1.0 stadium on the grounds that it would be an encroachment on the existing cenotaph (Mercury, 15 June).

Associated with the stadium issue, the southern AFL “high performance centre” proposed for the former Rosny golf course and parkland on Hobart's eastern shore met with a wall of opposition from nearby residents, despite backing from Mayor Blomeley's Clarence council. More than 400 people attended the meeting which had been brought about by a community petition on the issue, sponsored by the group “Save Rosny's Parks” which garnered enough signatures to force a Clarence municipality electors' poll on the issue to be held in July.

The Tasmanian economy paralleled the national condition in most ways over the period. In trend terms, which smooths monthly figures using a three month rolling average, growth was stable at 0.3 per cent per year, but much lower than the also stable national rate of 2.5 per cent. Job vacancies—a leading economic indicator—fell, while trailing indicator unemployment flatlined but remained historically low, equal to the national rate of 4.0 per cent. By far the biggest industry in employment terms was health care, which grew from less than 40,000 to 50,000 jobs, or by 25 per cent in the five years up to February 2024, with retail second and construction third.

The majority of jobs lost over the same five years were in the arts, where there were more than 3000 jobs lost, no doubt at least partly due to the Covid pandemic in that period. Significantly, net interstate migration was more than minus 3000 in 2022–23, the first such negative result since 2013–14, when it was minus 425 (ABS 6291.0.55.003).

The inability of refuelling the Antarctic supply ship Nurinya north of the Tasman bridge in Hobart and pauses in the redevelopment of Macquarie wharf no. 6 prompted a letter from federal environment minister Plibersek to premier Rockcliff saying she was increasingly concerned in delays in the project. Plibersek said the delays put at risk Hobart's status as home port for the icebreaker, which was continuing to refuel in Burnie in the state's northwest (Mercury, 13 June).

The two new Bass Strait ferries under construction by the state-owned Rauma Marine in Finland for Tasmania's TT Line increased in price during May, ostensibly due to increased costs resulting from neighbouring Russia's aggression in Ukraine and the Covid pandemic. TT Line agreed to pay an extra $81 million on top of the $850 million “fixed price” contract as well as release the company from any liabilities should delivery be further delayed. For Its part, the Finnish government agreed to match the extra $81 million contribution and guarantee the financial viability of its ship builder (Baird Maritime, 24 May). The first ferry, Spirit of Tasmania IV, was due for delivery in the third quarter of 2024. In the meantime, the upgrading of the East Devonport ferry terminal was delayed as TT Line announced it would issue a new tender for the works following increased costs flagged by the original contractor.

The colonial-era bronze statue of nineteenth century premier William Crowther was unceremoniously toppled in Hobart's Franklin Square late one night in May. Crowther, a medical man, was responsible for decapitating the body of palawa man William Lane in 1869 and sending the head to London's Royal College of Science (ABC, 15 May). The 1889 statue had been approved for removal by both the Hobart City Council and the state appeals tribunal on the grounds of its racist symbolism. However, before removal had been arranged, the statue was cut about the ankles, and the following night toppled, accompanied by graffiti reading “what goes around” and “decolonise.” At about the same time, Nala Mansell of the Tasmanian Aboriginal Centre expressed outrage when a police officer arrived unannounced at the office with brown paper bags containing ancestral remains, some radio-carbon dated to around 800 AD, saying that he had been told to “drop them off”. The remains had been investigated by the coroner, Simon Cooper (ABC, 8 May).

Following the Murrihy report that recommended a major overhaul to the industry, racing Minister Jane Howlett said she favoured urgent action to improve competition on the racetrack. However, for a second time the Racing Appeals Board overturned bans on Ben Yole and three other harness racing participants despite allegations of race fixing, team driving and animal welfare concerns against them outlined in the report. Despite successful appeals to the Supreme court over jurisdiction, the appeals board ruled that the Tasracing bans were unwarranted (ABC, 7 June).

The critically endangered maugean skate, a fish unique to Macquarie Harbour on the West Coast continued to be the centre of controversy between industrial fish farmers and environmental groups. Reduced dissolved oxygen and high nitrogen levels, which resulted from Atlantic salmon farming in the largely enclosed waterway, were blamed for threatening its extinction. In February, the salmon industry began trialling the pumping of dissolved oxygen into the harbour's depths using a diesel-powered generator on a barge to draw up low-oxygen water, fill it with concentrated oxygen, and pump it back into the waterway. New limits and monitoring by the environment protection agency (EPA) produced some positive results, but federal environment minister Tanya Plibersek had yet to determine the renewal of salmon farm licences in the harbour (ABC, 17 May).

Former prisoners at the Ashley Youth Detention Centre were due for a record compensation payout agreed in late June. Lawyers for the 129 former detainees agreed to a $75 million offer from the state government to compensate for abuse suffered during the period 1960–2023. While yet lacking supreme court approval, the agreement was a record within Australia (Mercury, 22 June). The centre, however, was still in operation at the time of writing.

At the end of June, the minority Liberals faced a combined opposition and record cross-bench with significantly more seats in the House of Assembly, a former Greens leader in the Legislative Council seat of Hobart, and increasing difficulty keeping control of parliament. On top of this, several major issues such as the Antarctic port, the AFL stadium, education, health, the youth detention centre, and a flatlining economy appeared unresolved. More positively, there were signs of increasing cooperation across parliament as representatives in the enlarged House re-evaluated their approach.

The author advises he has no conflict of interest in writing this document.