The potential distribution of Cereus (Cactaceae) species in scenarios of climate crises

Climate change represents one of the most critical threats to global biodiversity, impacting species worldwide. The family Cactaceae, found predominantly in xeric habitats, is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. To assess the potential impacts of climate change, ecological niche models (ENMs) have become essential tools in ecology, biogeography, and conservation. Here, we used ENMs algorithms, such as MaxEnt, Generalized Linear Models (GLM), and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), to forecast the future distribution of Cereus species (Cactaceae), focusing on their response to climate change. Our analysis targeted five species, utilizing shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to project their distribution from 2030 to 2090, comparing these with models for the last glacial maximum (∼21 ka). Our results suggest that C. stenogonus K.Schum. and C. bicolor Rizzini & Mattos are prone to experience a decline in distribution range, independent of the SSP scenario. Overall, the results also indicate that the effects of anthropogenic climate change differ from those of natural Pleistocene aridification, refuting our previous expectations. This work contributes to understanding how the distribution of drought-adapted vegetation could be influenced by climate change and highlights the need for informed conservation efforts to mitigate the potential adverse effects on cactus biodiversity.