Preoperative prediction of post hepatectomy liver failure after surgery for hepatocellular carcinoma on CT-scan by machine learning and radiomics analyses.

Introduction: No instruments are available to predict preoperatively the risk of posthepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) in HCC patients. The aim was to predict the occurrence of PHLF preoperatively by radiomics and clinical data through machine-learning algorithms.

Materials and methods: Clinical data and 3-phases CT scans were retrospectively collected among 13 Italian centres between 2008 and 2022. Radiomics features were extracted in the non-tumoral liver area. Data were split between training(70 %) and test(30 %) sets. An oversampling was run(ADASYN) in the training set. Random-Forest(RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGB) and support vector machine (SVM) models were fitted to predict PHLF. Final evaluation of the metrics was run in the test set. The best models were included in an averaging ensemble model (AEM).

Results: Five-hundred consecutive preoperative CT scans were collected with the relative clinical data. Of them, 17 (3.4 %) experienced a PHLF. Two-hundred sixteen radiomics features per patient were extracted. PCA selected 19 dimensions explaining >75 % of the variance. Associated clinical variables were: size, macrovascular invasion, cirrhosis, major resection and MELD score. Data were split in training cohort (70 %, n = 351) and a test cohort (30 %, n = 149). The RF model obtained an AUC = 89.1 %(Spec. = 70.1 %, Sens. = 100 %, accuracy = 71.1 %, PPV = 10.4 %, NPV = 100 %). The XGB model showed an AUC = 89.4 %(Spec. = 100 %, Sens. = 20.0 %, Accuracy = 97.3 %, PPV = 20 %, NPV = 97.3 %). The AEM combined the XGB and RF model, obtaining an AUC = 90.1 %(Spec. = 89.5 %, Sens. = 80.0 %, accuracy = 89.2 %, PPV = 21.0 %, NPV = 99.2 %).

Conclusions: The AEM obtained the best results in terms of discrimination and true positive identification. This could lead to better define patients fit or unfit for liver resection.