调和关于货币失调对增长影响的不同观点

IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Cécile Couharde , Carl Grekou , Valérie Mignon , Florian Morvillier
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文深入分析了1973-2019年间170个国家的汇率失调与经济增长之间的联系。尽管任何明显偏离均衡汇率水平的情况都是不可取的,但我们发现,在发展中国家,低估更有可能刺激经济增长。然而,只有在发展水平和货币低估达到一定临界值时,才能观察到这种积极影响。因此,发展中国家为促进经济增长而系统地低估货币实际价值的战略应谨慎制定,因为这些战略会增加这些经济体从积极增长机制转向不利增长机制的风险,这取决于其具体的财富水平和货币低估程度。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Reconciling contrasting views on the growth effect of currency misalignments
This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the link between exchange rate misalignments and economic growth for a large sample of 170 countries over the 1973-2019 period. Although any significant departures from the equilibrium exchange rate levels are found undesirable, we show that undervaluations are more likely to stimulate economic growth in developing countries. However, this positive impact is observed only up to certain thresholds of development level and currency undervaluation. Consequently, strategies in developing countries that systematically undervalue currencies in real terms to foster growth should be carefully tailored, as they raise the risk for these economies of switching from a positive to a less favorable growth regime, depending on both their specific wealth level and the extent of their currency undervaluation.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.20
自引率
4.00%
发文量
141
期刊介绍: Since its launch in 1982, Journal of International Money and Finance has built up a solid reputation as a high quality scholarly journal devoted to theoretical and empirical research in the fields of international monetary economics, international finance, and the rapidly developing overlap area between the two. Researchers in these areas, and financial market professionals too, pay attention to the articles that the journal publishes. Authors published in the journal are in the forefront of scholarly research on exchange rate behaviour, foreign exchange options, international capital markets, international monetary and fiscal policy, international transmission and related questions.
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