Uncertainty and variability in post-processing kinetic calculations- nutritional quality loss in fruit juice products

During juice processing and subsequent handling, vitamins are prone to degradation. Quantitative assessment of the effect of post-processing parameters on nutrient loss dependent shelf life can be implemented using either typical deterministic kinetic analysis or stochastic approaches, incorporating all identified sources of uncertainty. The presented case study is based on published data of post processing Vitamin C degradation in orange juice, processed via high pressure or thermal pasteurization. Monte Carlo simulations were implemented to account for different types of uncertainty, i.e. cold chain temperature variability, raw material biological variance and parameter uncertainty. Results showed that products, processed thermally or by high pressure, had a shelf life in the 51–70, vs 98–117 days range, respectively, considering all sources of uncertainty. In comparison to the respective single estimates of 60 and 110 days, based on fixed parameter values and constant temperature conditions, the distributions obtained depict more realistically the expected product quality variation.