基于夜间光照数据的能源碳足迹时空变化与解耦效应:来自中国东北地区各县的证据

IF 3.9 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Rina Wu , Ruinan Wang , Zhiwei Nian , Jilin Gu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在全球气候变化的背景下,作为实现减碳节能的基本地理单元,每个县都有必要对其碳足迹进行评估,以促进可持续发展。为分析东北地区 221 个县的能源相关碳排放情况,本研究利用夜间光照数据和碳排放信息建立了拟合模型。该模型的 R2 值为 0.945,均方根误差(RMSE)和相对误差(RE)值分别为 8501.37 Mt 和 2.32%。此外,还采用了探索性时空数据分析和标准偏差椭圆方法来探索碳足迹的空间模式和时空演变。结果表明,碳足迹和碳赤字的年均增长率分别为 6.17% 和 7.28%。2013 年之前,碳足迹和碳赤字都经历了快速增长,但之后出现了短暂的下降。从 2016 年开始,这两个指标又开始扩大。据观察,碳足迹正在向西扩展,而碳赤字也呈现出类似的模式,从中心向周边地区辐射。碳足迹显示出明显的空间自相关性,地方聚集主要受到高-高(HH)和低-低(LL)聚集的影响。碳足迹的重心和覆盖范围向西南方向移动,呈现出相对稳定的发展趋势。此外,还采用 Tapio 解耦模型分析了经济发展与碳排放之间的关系。结果表明,碳排放与经济发展符合三阶段脱钩模式。总体而言,脱钩状态以增长联动为特征;但脱钩稳定性相对较弱,在脱钩状态和耦合状态之间反复波动。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Spatio-temporal variation and decoupling effects of energy carbon footprint based on nighttime light data: Evidence from counties in northeast China
In the context of global climate change, it is essential for each county, as a fundamental geographical unit for achieving carbon reduction and energy conservation, to assess its carbon footprint to promote sustainable development. To analyze the energy-related carbon emissions of 221 counties in Northeast China, this study establishes a fitting model using nighttime light data and carbon emissions information. The coefficient R2 value of 0.945, with Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Relative Error (RE) values of 8501.37 Mt and 2.32%, respectively. Additionally, exploratory spatio-temporal data analyses and standard deviation ellipse methods were used to explore the spatial patterns and spatio-temporal evolution of carbon footprints. The results show that the average annual growth rates of carbon footprint and carbon deficit are determined to be 6.17 % and 7.28%, respectively. Prior to 2013, both the carbon footprint and carbon deficit experienced rapid growth; however, a brief decline occurred thereafter. Starting in 2016, both metrics began to expand again. It is observed that the carbon footprint is expanding westward, while the carbon deficit shows a comparable pattern, radiating from the center to the surrounding areas. The carbon footprint demonstrates significant spatial autocorrelation, with local aggregation predominantly influenced by high-high (HH) and low-low (LL) aggregation. The center of gravity and coverage of the carbon footprint has shifted southwest, displaying a relatively stable development trend. Moreover, the Tapio decoupling model is employed to analyze the relationship between economic development and carbon emissions. The results show that carbon emissions and economic development are consistent with a three-stage decoupling pattern. Overall, the decoupling state is characterized by a growth linkage; however, the decoupling stability is relatively weak, with fluctuations between decoupled and coupled states occurring repeatedly.
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来源期刊
Atmospheric Pollution Research
Atmospheric Pollution Research ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES-
CiteScore
8.30
自引率
6.70%
发文量
256
审稿时长
36 days
期刊介绍: Atmospheric Pollution Research (APR) is an international journal designed for the publication of articles on air pollution. Papers should present novel experimental results, theory and modeling of air pollution on local, regional, or global scales. Areas covered are research on inorganic, organic, and persistent organic air pollutants, air quality monitoring, air quality management, atmospheric dispersion and transport, air-surface (soil, water, and vegetation) exchange of pollutants, dry and wet deposition, indoor air quality, exposure assessment, health effects, satellite measurements, natural emissions, atmospheric chemistry, greenhouse gases, and effects on climate change.
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