Mapping tree canopy thermal refugia for birds using biophysical models and LiDAR.

Accurately predicting exposure of animals to climate change requires evaluating the effects of warming on the microclimates they occupy. Birds, like many other taxa, make extensive use of cool microsites in vegetation during hot weather. Taking advantage of recent advances in modelling tree canopy microclimates, we combined LiDAR-based individual tree canopy mapping and biophysical modelling to evaluate the current and future availability of cool microsites in a subtropical African savanna landscape. We constructed biophysical models for two common bird species, an ~ 40-g bulbul and an ~ 200-g hornbill, and modelled exposure to conditions under which the body temperature (T_b) of individuals resting in canopies exceeds 42 °C, equivalent to ~ 2 °C above resting thermoneutral T_b. At present, 34.5% of trees taller than 2 m in our 139-ha study site provide microclimates in which resting T_b remained below 42 °C for both species during our study period. Under a Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate change scenario and assuming no change in vegetation structure, by the end of the Century the availability of microsites characterized by T_b < 42 °C will decrease to just 0.4% and 3.8% for bulbuls and hornbills, respectively. The proportion of trees in whose canopies bulbuls' and hornbills' exposure to T_b > 42 °C is limited to < 10 d summer^- 1 will decrease from 98 to 99% currently to 3.0% and 24.3% by end-century, respectively. These findings reveal the magnitude of changes for birds in a savanna thermal landscape under a business-as-usual emissions scenario.