Soil erosion estimation in a catchment with implemented soil and water conservation measures

The variations in soil erosion significantly impact regional ecological security. Under rapid urbanisation, extensive ecological restoration and climate change, soil erosion development in the red soil region of southern China is ambiguous. Therefore, this study investigated the current (1980s–2020) and future (2050) erosion characteristics in a typical soil erosion control catchment (Changting section catchment) in this region by using the Cellular Automata Markov model and CMIP6 data to predict future scenarios and the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation to estimate soil erosion. The results showed significant changes in the vegetation coverage of major land uses from 1980s to 2020, which was mainly caused by continuous soil and water conservation (SWC). The land use subtypes that were obtained by reclassifying land use based on the threshold of vegetation cover on soil erosion control, reflect a continuous transformation from those with poor SWC effectiveness to those with great SWC effectiveness. Therefore, the estimated soil erosion intensity continued to decrease from 1980s to 2020, and the contribution of land use/land cover (LULC) impacts ranged from 74%–195%. However, predictions of land use subtypes indicated that LULC may be stable after 2020; thus, soil erosion changed little when the climate was almost unchanged in 2050. Under climate change scenarios, soil erosion may increase by 111%–121%, and the contribution of precipitation impacts was 63%–66%. The major driving factor of soil erosion changes may shift from LULC to precipitation after 2020. Therefore, in the future, the potential for reducing soil erosion by vegetation restoration may be limited, and more engineering measures should be applied to address the erosion risk caused by climate changes. This study provides prospects for land use/land cover and soil erosion in the red soil region of southern China.