地区疏散条件随着时间的推移发生了怎样的变化?在事故环境、区域环境和社会系统的条件下,建立可供选择的疏散模型

IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Weihua Zhang , Wenmei Gai , Wuyi Cheng , Liaoying Zhou
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在危险化学品运输过程中发生重大泄漏事故时,快速疏散对于保护风险区域内的人员至关重要。本文提出了一种整合事故环境、区域环境和社会系统的方法来进行此类事故的疏散评估。建立了一个基于代理的建模框架,包括预警机制、疏散准备过程以及疏散模式和移动过程,以全面模拟疏散过程。应用中国江苏省 1964 年至 2020 年的区域环境和社会系统数据,分析疏散条件的变化是否相应地影响了疏散效果。建立了一个模拟江苏省吴中区运输过程中液氯泄漏事故的区域疏散模型,以检验所提出方法的有效性和适用性。研究发现,随着研究区域居民点的演变,环境线索触发的预警信息扩散率随时间变化而变化,变化率为 9%;而媒体技术的发展使预警信息得以快速扩散,大量个体快速加载到区域疏散网络中;从整体疏散效果来看,预警扩散较快的年份并不是效率最高的年份;建筑物和人口的分布对整体疏散效果有很大影响,而前者的影响更为显著。研究结果可为公共应急部门制定有效的预警资源分配和疏散组织方案提供信息。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
How have regional evacuation conditions changed over time? Evacuation model for alternative scenarios given the accident environment, regional environment, and social systems
The rapid evacuation in major leak accidents during hazardous chemical transportation is critical for protecting people in risk areas. An approach integrating the accident environment, regional environment, and social system is proposed to perform evacuation evaluation in such accidents. An agent-based modeling framework consisting of warning mechanisms, evacuation preparation process, as well as evacuation modes and movement process, is developed to comprehensively model the evacuation process. The regional environmental and social system data from 1964 to 2020 of Jiangsu Province in China is applied to analyze whether the changes in evacuation conditions have correspondingly affected evacuation effectiveness. A regional evacuation model simulating a real liquid chlorine leak accident during transportation in Wuzhong of Jiangsu Province is constructed to test the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed method. It is found that a 9 % change in the diffusion rate of warning messages triggered by environmental cues with the evolution of the study area settlements following the chronological changes; while the evolution of media technology allows for the rapid diffusion of warning messages and the rapid loading of a large number of individuals into the regional evacuation network; Years with faster warning diffusion have not been the most efficient ones in terms of overall evacuation; The distribution of buildings and population substantially impacts the overall evacuation effectiveness, while the former has a more significant impact. The study results can provide information for public emergency authorities to develop effective early warning resource allocation and evacuation organization plans.
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来源期刊
International journal of disaster risk reduction
International journal of disaster risk reduction GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARYMETEOROLOGY-METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
CiteScore
8.70
自引率
18.00%
发文量
688
审稿时长
79 days
期刊介绍: The International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction (IJDRR) is the journal for researchers, policymakers and practitioners across diverse disciplines: earth sciences and their implications; environmental sciences; engineering; urban studies; geography; and the social sciences. IJDRR publishes fundamental and applied research, critical reviews, policy papers and case studies with a particular focus on multi-disciplinary research that aims to reduce the impact of natural, technological, social and intentional disasters. IJDRR stimulates exchange of ideas and knowledge transfer on disaster research, mitigation, adaptation, prevention and risk reduction at all geographical scales: local, national and international. Key topics:- -multifaceted disaster and cascading disasters -the development of disaster risk reduction strategies and techniques -discussion and development of effective warning and educational systems for risk management at all levels -disasters associated with climate change -vulnerability analysis and vulnerability trends -emerging risks -resilience against disasters. The journal particularly encourages papers that approach risk from a multi-disciplinary perspective.
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