Understanding managers' motivation in adopting protective measures: Preventing supply chain disruptions from flood-related Natechs

Floods can cause damage and losses at chemical industrial installations and can trigger chemical accidents (so-called Natech accidents). The impact of Natech events can escalate throughout supply chains. To mitigate such impact, industry and business managers need to adopt protective measures in the chemical industry. Past research has shown that managers may not be on the same page in adopting protective behavior. This exploratory study aims to understand factors influencing managers' motivation for adopting protective measures to prevent chemical supply chain disruptions when dealing with flood-related Natech risk, through the lens of an enriched Protection Motivation Theory (PMT). It proposes an enriched version of the PMT, which is re-elaborated from three aspects: (1) updating the sub-components of threat appraisal with advanced risk perception formation; (2) considering perceived resource deficiency within the business when evaluating coping appraisal; and (3) incorporating the impact of cognitive biases. The model is validated through partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) analysis, with data collected through a questionnaire distributed to a sample of the chemical industry in Colombia. The results showed that the proposed model is a promising model for predicting managers' protection motivation although it does not effectively explain or predict the variance in the endogenous variables. Experiential risk perception, response efficacy, self-efficacy, and resource deficiency are strong drivers in predicting managers' protection motivation. Furthermore, normalcy bias lowers deliberative risk perception and indirectly affects protection motivation, whereas, short-termism increases perceived resource deficiency and indirectly affects protection motivation. Although not related to protection motivation, optimistic bias is found to lower affective risk perception. In addition, several key insights were obtained that may help enhance managers’ protection motivation and Natech risk management through more specific risk communication and policy interventions.