基于 CGE 模型评估航空系统中断时的经济恢复能力

IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Lei Zhou , Mengnan Zhang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究采用可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型来评估台风 "勒基玛 "对上海航空系统造成破坏后的经济恢复能力。该研究整合了先进的灾害冲击和经济恢复力模块,为评估经济恢复力策略及其有效性提供了一个全面的框架。特别是,灾害冲击模块的设计考虑了商品流和客流的扰动,而经济弹性模块则包含了固有弹性策略和自适应弹性策略。结果显示如下。首先,台风 "勒基玛 "对上海航空系统造成了重大影响,在基础情景下,GDP大幅损失了0.52%,政府收入减少了0.29%,总投资也有所减少。其次,固有和适应性抗灾策略的实施减轻了这些损失。内在抗灾能力使上海地区的潜在 GDP 损失减少了 0.29%。适应性恢复策略,如航班重新安排、航班改道和有效的管理流程,虽然最初由于资源重新分配用于恢复工作而抑制了 GDP,但最终增强了系统的整体恢复能力。第三,交通中断对区域贸易活动,特别是区域产出和附加值产生重大阻碍作用。对交通中断最敏感的行业是运输、仓储和邮政服务业以及批发和零售业。这些研究结果为航空业的政策制定者和利益相关者提供了宝贵的见解,强调了采取弹性策略以减轻未来中断对经济影响的必要性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Assessing economic resilience in aviation system disruptions based on CGE model
This study employs a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the economic resilience of Shanghai's aviation system disruption caused by Typhoon Lekima. The research integrates advanced modules for disaster shock and economic resilience, providing a comprehensive framework to evaluate economic resilience tactics and their effectiveness. Specially, the disaster shock module is designed to account for perturbations in both commodity flow and passenger flow, and the economic resilience module incorporates both inherent and adaptive resilience tactics. The results show the following. First, Typhoon Lekima significantly impacted Shanghai's aviation system, resulting in substantial GDP losses of 0.52 %, decreased government revenue by 0.29 %, and reduced total investment in the base scenario. Second, the implementation of resilience tactics, both inherent and adaptive, mitigated these losses. Inherent resilience reduced potential GDP losses by 0.29 % in the Shanghai region. Adaptive resilience tactics, such as flight rescheduling, flight diversion, and effective management processes, though initially suppressing GDP due to resource reallocation towards recovery efforts, ultimately enhanced the system's overall resilience. Third, traffic disruptions have a significant hindering effect on regional trade activities, especially in the regional output and value added. The industries most sensitive to traffic disruptions were transportation, storage, and postal service, and wholesale and retail trade. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders in the aviation industry, highlighting the necessity of resilience tactics to mitigate the economic impacts of future disruptions.
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来源期刊
International journal of disaster risk reduction
International journal of disaster risk reduction GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARYMETEOROLOGY-METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
CiteScore
8.70
自引率
18.00%
发文量
688
审稿时长
79 days
期刊介绍: The International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction (IJDRR) is the journal for researchers, policymakers and practitioners across diverse disciplines: earth sciences and their implications; environmental sciences; engineering; urban studies; geography; and the social sciences. IJDRR publishes fundamental and applied research, critical reviews, policy papers and case studies with a particular focus on multi-disciplinary research that aims to reduce the impact of natural, technological, social and intentional disasters. IJDRR stimulates exchange of ideas and knowledge transfer on disaster research, mitigation, adaptation, prevention and risk reduction at all geographical scales: local, national and international. Key topics:- -multifaceted disaster and cascading disasters -the development of disaster risk reduction strategies and techniques -discussion and development of effective warning and educational systems for risk management at all levels -disasters associated with climate change -vulnerability analysis and vulnerability trends -emerging risks -resilience against disasters. The journal particularly encourages papers that approach risk from a multi-disciplinary perspective.
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