基于可用性启发式和系统动力学的碳税政策对汽车污染控制和碳减排的影响

IF 10.5 1区工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY

Sustainable Cities and Society Pub Date : 2024-11-17 DOI:10.1016/j.scs.2024.105990

Shuwei Jia, Wanminghao Zhu

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引用次数: 0

摘要

机动车排放是造成中国空气污染的主要因素。本文为城市道路交通系统建立了一个系统动力学管理模型，旨在减少排放和污染。此外，为了扩大碳税的减排效果，我们提出了一种基于可用性启发式和系统动力学的车辆出行决策集成算法。研究结果表明：(1) 在北京的道路交通系统中，客运车辆和货车分别是二氧化碳和 PM2.5 的主要排放源。卡车排放量的激增是导致 PM2.5 上升的主要原因。(2) 对公路运输实施碳税政策会产生替代效应、协同效应和预测效应。利用启发式方法优化碳税制度，有助于控制纳税人的心理预期，提高减排效果。(3）税收原则限制了碳税的效果。(4）与标准碳税相比，启发式碳税可使二氧化碳和 PM2.5 的减排量分别增加 8.47%和 8.38%。在联合绿色情景下，污染损失程度和对健康的影响可分别减少 20.44 % 和 19.14 %。

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Effects of carbon tax policy on vehicle pollution control and carbon reduction based on the availability heuristic and system dynamics

Emissions from motor vehicles are major contributors to air pollution in China. This article establishes a system dynamics management model for the urban road transport system that aims to reduce emissions and pollution. Further, to broaden the carbon tax's emission-reduction effect, we propose an integration algorithm for vehicle travel decision-making based on the availability heuristic and system dynamics. The results of our study show that (1) in Beijing's road transport system, passenger vehicles and trucks are the main sources of CO₂ and PM_2.5 emissions, respectively. The surge in emissions from trucks is a key contributor to the observed increase in PM_2.5. (2) The application of carbon tax policy to road transport is subject to substitution, synergy and projection effects. Using heuristics to optimize the carbon tax system can help control taxpayers’ psychological expectations and increase the emission-reduction effect. (3) The principle of taxation limits the effect of carbon taxes. (4) Compared with a standard carbon tax, a heuristic carbon tax can increase the reduction of CO₂ and PM_2.5 emissions by 8.47 % and 8.38 %, respectively. Under the joint green scenario, the degree of pollution loss and the influence on health can be reduced by 20.44 % and 19.14 %, respectively.

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来源期刊

Sustainable Cities and Society Social Sciences-Geography, Planning and Development

CiteScore

22.00

自引率

13.70%

发文量

810

审稿时长

27 days

期刊介绍： Sustainable Cities and Society (SCS) is an international journal that focuses on fundamental and applied research to promote environmentally sustainable and socially resilient cities. The journal welcomes cross-cutting, multi-disciplinary research in various areas, including: 1. Smart cities and resilient environments; 2. Alternative/clean energy sources, energy distribution, distributed energy generation, and energy demand reduction/management; 3. Monitoring and improving air quality in built environment and cities (e.g., healthy built environment and air quality management); 4. Energy efficient, low/zero carbon, and green buildings/communities; 5. Climate change mitigation and adaptation in urban environments; 6. Green infrastructure and BMPs; 7. Environmental Footprint accounting and management; 8. Urban agriculture and forestry; 9. ICT, smart grid and intelligent infrastructure; 10. Urban design/planning, regulations, legislation, certification, economics, and policy; 11. Social aspects, impacts and resiliency of cities; 12. Behavior monitoring, analysis and change within urban communities; 13. Health monitoring and improvement; 14. Nexus issues related to sustainable cities and societies; 15. Smart city governance; 16. Decision Support Systems for trade-off and uncertainty analysis for improved management of cities and society; 17. Big data, machine learning, and artificial intelligence applications and case studies; 18. Critical infrastructure protection, including security, privacy, forensics, and reliability issues of cyber-physical systems. 19. Water footprint reduction and urban water distribution, harvesting, treatment, reuse and management; 20. Waste reduction and recycling; 21. Wastewater collection, treatment and recycling; 22. Smart, clean and healthy transportation systems and infrastructure;