了解气候变化在灾害死亡率中的作用:尼泊尔的经验证据

IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Dipesh Chapagain , Luna Bharati , Reinhard Mechler , Samir K.C. , Georg Pflug , Christian Borgemeister
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引用次数: 0

摘要

与气候相关的灾害影响,如最严重的后果--人员伤亡,在全球范围内不断上升。一些研究将这种增长归因于人口增长,而另一些研究则指出气候变化是主要原因。然而,将气候变化与灾害影响联系起来的经验证据仍然有限,尤其是在全球南部地区。本研究针对尼泊尔这个低收入和灾害高发国家的影响归因问题进行了探讨。我们采用了一种基于回归的稳健方法,利用 1992 年至 2021 年的次国家级实证数据,解释了洪水和滑坡死亡率中灾害、暴露和脆弱性的作用。然而,近年来尼泊尔西部的灾害影响急剧上升,这主要是受极端降水事件增加的影响。例如,单日最大降水量每增加一个标准化单位,洪水死亡率就会增加 33%,暴雨天数则会使滑坡死亡率增加 45%。相比之下,人均收入每增加一个标准化单位,滑坡和洪水死亡率就会分别降低 30% 和 45%。虽然脆弱性的降低有助于降低灾害死亡率,但人口暴露程度并没有发挥重要作用。因此,洪水和山体滑坡死亡率的上升,特别是在尼泊尔西部,主要归因于与气候变化相关的极端降水的增加。由于预计气候变化将进一步加剧这种极端情况,除非做出重大努力来降低脆弱性,否则灾害死亡率很可能会上升。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Understanding the role of climate change in disaster mortality: Empirical evidence from Nepal
Climate-related disaster impacts, such as loss of human life as its most severe consequence, have been rising globally. Some studies attribute this increase to population growth, while others point to climate change as the primary cause. However, empirical evidence linking climate change to disaster impacts remains limited, particularly in the Global South. This study addresses the impact attribution question in Nepal, a low-income and highly disaster-prone country. We applied a robust regression-based method that accounts for the role of hazard, exposure and vulnerability in flood and landslide mortality, using subnational scale empirical data from 1992 to 2021.
Historically, flood and landslide mortality has been highest in central and eastern Nepal due to the stronger influence of the Indian monsoon. However, disaster impacts have surged in recent years in western Nepal, driven largely by an increase in extreme precipitation events. For example, a one standardized unit increase in maximum one-day precipitation increases flood mortality by 33%, and heavy rain days increases landslide mortality by 45%. In contrast, a one standardized unit increase in per capita income reduces landslide and flood mortality by 30% and 45%, respectively. While reductions in vulnerability have helped lower disaster mortality, population exposure has not played a significant role. Therefore, the rise in flood and landslide mortality, particularly in western Nepal, is primarily attributable to the increase in precipitation extremes linked to climate change. With climate change expected to further intensify such extremes, disaster mortality is likely to increase unless significant efforts are made to reduce vulnerability.
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来源期刊
Climate Risk Management
Climate Risk Management Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science
CiteScore
8.20
自引率
4.50%
发文量
76
审稿时长
30 weeks
期刊介绍: Climate Risk Management publishes original scientific contributions, state-of-the-art reviews and reports of practical experience on the use of knowledge and information regarding the consequences of climate variability and climate change in decision and policy making on climate change responses from the near- to long-term. The concept of climate risk management refers to activities and methods that are used by individuals, organizations, and institutions to facilitate climate-resilient decision-making. Its objective is to promote sustainable development by maximizing the beneficial impacts of climate change responses and minimizing negative impacts across the full spectrum of geographies and sectors that are potentially affected by the changing climate.
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