Sepideh Afsari Bajestani , Silvia Serrao-Neumann , Christina Hanna , Xinyu Fu
{"title":"应对洪水风险管理和土地使用规划决策中的不确定性:新西兰奥特亚罗瓦的启示","authors":"Sepideh Afsari Bajestani , Silvia Serrao-Neumann , Christina Hanna , Xinyu Fu","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100666","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Flooding with increasing intensity and frequency is presenting significant challenges for risk management and land use planning in urban areas. This is further exacerbated by uncertainties regarding how flood patterns are changing because of climate change. However, how such uncertainties are considered to inform flood risk management and land use planning decisions can vary largely from place to place and remain unclear in the literature. This paper contributes to this by examining how uncertainty is dealt with in flood risk management and land use planning in Aotearoa New Zealand. Drawing on empirical data at the local level, findings indicate that Aotearoa New Zealand’s decision-makers face challenges in considering and communicating uncertainty due to the prevalence of outdated approaches and regulatory constraints, fragmented risk governance, and lack of appropriate understanding of different perceptions and assumptions regarding flood risk between different stakeholders. Based on findings, the paper discusses the critical role of a national-level adaptive flood risk governance in helping to ensure consistency and coherency across different jurisdictions and levels of government, regarding the incorporation of uncertainty into flood risk management and land use planning. This includes the provision of national directives for incorporating uncertainty in decision-making whilst leaving room for innovation and targeted variability at the local level.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100666"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Dealing with uncertainty in flood risk management and land use planning decisions: Insights from Aotearoa New Zealand\",\"authors\":\"Sepideh Afsari Bajestani , Silvia Serrao-Neumann , Christina Hanna , Xinyu Fu\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100666\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>Flooding with increasing intensity and frequency is presenting significant challenges for risk management and land use planning in urban areas. This is further exacerbated by uncertainties regarding how flood patterns are changing because of climate change. However, how such uncertainties are considered to inform flood risk management and land use planning decisions can vary largely from place to place and remain unclear in the literature. This paper contributes to this by examining how uncertainty is dealt with in flood risk management and land use planning in Aotearoa New Zealand. Drawing on empirical data at the local level, findings indicate that Aotearoa New Zealand’s decision-makers face challenges in considering and communicating uncertainty due to the prevalence of outdated approaches and regulatory constraints, fragmented risk governance, and lack of appropriate understanding of different perceptions and assumptions regarding flood risk between different stakeholders. Based on findings, the paper discusses the critical role of a national-level adaptive flood risk governance in helping to ensure consistency and coherency across different jurisdictions and levels of government, regarding the incorporation of uncertainty into flood risk management and land use planning. 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Dealing with uncertainty in flood risk management and land use planning decisions: Insights from Aotearoa New Zealand
Flooding with increasing intensity and frequency is presenting significant challenges for risk management and land use planning in urban areas. This is further exacerbated by uncertainties regarding how flood patterns are changing because of climate change. However, how such uncertainties are considered to inform flood risk management and land use planning decisions can vary largely from place to place and remain unclear in the literature. This paper contributes to this by examining how uncertainty is dealt with in flood risk management and land use planning in Aotearoa New Zealand. Drawing on empirical data at the local level, findings indicate that Aotearoa New Zealand’s decision-makers face challenges in considering and communicating uncertainty due to the prevalence of outdated approaches and regulatory constraints, fragmented risk governance, and lack of appropriate understanding of different perceptions and assumptions regarding flood risk between different stakeholders. Based on findings, the paper discusses the critical role of a national-level adaptive flood risk governance in helping to ensure consistency and coherency across different jurisdictions and levels of government, regarding the incorporation of uncertainty into flood risk management and land use planning. This includes the provision of national directives for incorporating uncertainty in decision-making whilst leaving room for innovation and targeted variability at the local level.
期刊介绍:
Climate Risk Management publishes original scientific contributions, state-of-the-art reviews and reports of practical experience on the use of knowledge and information regarding the consequences of climate variability and climate change in decision and policy making on climate change responses from the near- to long-term.
The concept of climate risk management refers to activities and methods that are used by individuals, organizations, and institutions to facilitate climate-resilient decision-making. Its objective is to promote sustainable development by maximizing the beneficial impacts of climate change responses and minimizing negative impacts across the full spectrum of geographies and sectors that are potentially affected by the changing climate.