Formation and endogenous feedback mechanism of farmers’ bioenergy feedstocks planting decisions

The sustainable supply of bioenergy is currently facing a bottleneck due to the impact of farmers’ planting decisions. Identifying the formation and endogenous feedback mechanisms of farmers’ planting decisions on bioenergy feedstocks is crucial to the bioenergy industry. While some studies have explored the factors affecting farmers’ production of bioenergy feedstocks, the interaction mechanisms of these factors and the endogenous feedback mechanism of the decision-making system have not been studied. To address this research gap, we developed a Bounded Rationality Decision-Making Reasoning System (BRDMRS) that considers individual and environmental factors to the Belief-Desire-Intention (BDI) analysis framework. Using survey data from 590 farmers in Suixi County, Zhanjiang City, Guangdong Province, we constructed Decision-Making Formation Model (DFM) and Decision-Making Endogenous Feedback Model (DEFM) to analyze the formation and feedback mechanisms of farmers’ bioenergy planting behavior. The study concludes that farmers’ behavioral decision-making follows the basic framework of the BDI model and is formed through multi-level feedback by various influencing factors, such as farmers’ personal and family endowments, understanding of the farming environment, farmers’ bioenergy cognition, information acquisition, risk perception, and desire. And the direct and indirect effects of the acting factors on the acted factors are not necessarily in the same direction. The simulated results suggest that farmers’ planting behavior changes from positive to negative, indicating a shift from risk-seeking to risk-aversion. By adjusting the weights of variables, eight scenarios are set up for simulation, and it is found that although farmers’ planting behavior is improved, the trend over time do not change significantly. Farmers’ planting behavior has experienced a change from bounded rationality to rationality. Farmers’ gradually negative planting behavior is related to the unsatisfied expectation of high economic returns and technical guidance in the early stage. To ensure the sustainable supply of bioenergy, adequate financial support is crucial to induce the active participation of farmers in the unstable development of bioenergy.