1948-2010 年间东北亚上空因人为强迫而加速的干燥趋势

IF 4.5 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Ruixia Guo , Jianping Huang , Haipeng Yu , Zeyong Hu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

自 20 世纪 50 年代以来,东北亚出现了明显的干旱趋势。这种干旱趋势的归因对于了解干旱及其对人为影响的反应非常重要。尽管有越来越多的证据表明人类对地表气温和降水的影响,但人们对人类引起的气候变化如何影响观测到的干旱变化知之甚少。在此,我们采用 "动态调整 "方法,根据观测记录对 1948-2010 年期间东北亚地区干旱趋势的人为影响进行了另一种估算。分解分析表明,东北亚干旱趋势的加剧主要是由蒸散强迫驱动的,约占干旱趋势的 64%,几乎是降水不足强迫的两倍。蒸散强迫加速了干旱趋势,这主要归因于人为变暖对潜在蒸散(PET)的影响。考虑到人为强迫对潜在蒸散量和降水量的综合影响,结果表明,1948-2010 年间,人为强迫使东北亚地区的干旱趋势面积增加了 21%。特别是,人为强迫显著放大了干旱趋势的幅度,使干旱趋势增强的地区扩大了43%。这些发现提供了令人信服的证据,证明了人类对东北亚地区半个世纪尺度的干旱趋势的影响,意味着该地区干旱事件发生的总体可能性因人为强迫而增加。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Accelerated drying trends over Northeast Asia by anthropogenic forcing during 1948–2010
Northeast Asia has experienced a significant drying trend since the 1950s. Attribution of this drying trend is important for understanding drying and its response to anthropogenic forcing. Despite increasing evidence of human influence on surface air temperature and precipitation, how human-induced climate change is affecting the observed aridity change is poorly understood. Here, by employing a “dynamical adjustment” methodology, we present an alternative estimation of the anthropogenic influence on drying trends over Northeast Asia during 1948–2010 from the observational records. Decomposition analysis revealed that the exacerbation of drying trends over Northeast Asia is largely driven by evapotranspiration forcing, which contributed to approximately 64 % of the drying trend and almost doubled that attributed to precipitation deficit. The acceleration of the drying trend by evapotranspiration forcing was mainly attributable to anthropogenic warming effect on potential evapotranspiration (PET). Considering the integrated effect of anthropogenic forcing on both PET and precipitation, the results showed that anthropogenic forcing has increased the extent of the drying trend area by ∼21 % over Northeast Asia during 1948–2010. In particular, the magnitudes of drying trends were significantly amplified by anthropogenic forcing, resulting in an expansion of the areas with enhanced drying trend by ∼43 %. These findings provide compelling evidence of a human influence on half century-scale drying trends over Northeast Asia, implying the overall likelihood of drought events increasing in this region due to anthropogenic forcing.
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来源期刊
Atmospheric Research
Atmospheric Research 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
9.40
自引率
10.90%
发文量
460
审稿时长
47 days
期刊介绍: The journal publishes scientific papers (research papers, review articles, letters and notes) dealing with the part of the atmosphere where meteorological events occur. Attention is given to all processes extending from the earth surface to the tropopause, but special emphasis continues to be devoted to the physics of clouds, mesoscale meteorology and air pollution, i.e. atmospheric aerosols; microphysical processes; cloud dynamics and thermodynamics; numerical simulation, climatology, climate change and weather modification.
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