用对数正态分布模拟全球化石二氧化碳排放量

IF 6.2 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
F. Prieto , C.B. García-García , R. Salmerón-Gómez
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引用次数: 0

摘要

二氧化碳排放已成为对环境和全球经济产生深远影响的关键问题。大气中二氧化碳含量的持续增加已成为气候变化及其相关灾难性影响的主要因素。要应对这一紧迫挑战,需要全球共同努力,这就要求深入了解排放模式和趋势。本文的重点是确定二氧化碳排放的基本分布,分析化石二氧化碳排放数据在国家层面上可以用一个针对整个分布范围(世界所有国家)的 2 参数统计模型来描述的假设。我们认为,用简单分布建模对理解二氧化碳排放特别有用,我们希望能让决策者更容易理解我们的研究结果。我们利用四个数据库的数据,分析了六种候选分布(指数分布、菲斯克分布、伽马分布、对数正态分布、洛马克斯分布、威布尔分布)。我们的研究结果凸显了对数正态分布在描述所研究的所有国家和年份的排放量特征方面的充分性。我们还采用短期、中期和长期的滚动窗口方法,对 1970 年至 2021 年的吉布拉特定律进行了全面分析。我们的研究结果表明,吉布拉特定律似乎是二氧化碳原始排放量的短期现象,但不是人均排放量的短期现象,这与之前的研究结论一致。最后,我们利用对数正态模型预测了未来几年的排放参数,并提出了减少化石二氧化碳排放总量的两项政策。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Modelling global fossil CO2 emissions with a lognormal distribution
Carbon dioxide emissions have emerged as a critical issue with a profound impact on the environment and the global economy. The steady increase in atmospheric CO2 levels has become a major contributor to climate change and its associated catastrophic effects. A global effort is needed to tackle this pressing challenge, requiring a deep understanding of emissions patterns and trends. This paper focuses on identifying the underlying distribution of CO2 emissions analysing the hypothesis that the fossil CO2 emissions data, at the country level, can be described by a 2-parameter statistical model for the whole range of the distribution (all world countries). We consider that modelling with a simple distribution can be particularly useful in understanding CO2 emissions and we are looking to make our findings more accessible to policymakers. We utilize data from four databases and analyse six candidate distributions (exponential, Fisk, gamma, lognormal, Lomax, Weibull). Our findings highlight the adequacy of the lognormal distribution in characterizing emissions across all countries and years studied. A comprehensive analysis of Gibrat’s Law from 1970 to 2021 is also presented, employing a rolling window approach for the short, medium, and long term. Our findings reveal that Gibrat’s Law appears to be a short-term phenomenon for original CO2 emissions, but not for per capita emissions, aligning with conclusions from previous research. Finally, we employ the lognormal model to predict emission parameters for the coming years and propose two policies for reducing total fossil CO2 emissions.
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来源期刊
Socio-economic Planning Sciences
Socio-economic Planning Sciences OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE-
CiteScore
9.40
自引率
13.10%
发文量
294
审稿时长
58 days
期刊介绍: Studies directed toward the more effective utilization of existing resources, e.g. mathematical programming models of health care delivery systems with relevance to more effective program design; systems analysis of fire outbreaks and its relevance to the location of fire stations; statistical analysis of the efficiency of a developing country economy or industry. Studies relating to the interaction of various segments of society and technology, e.g. the effects of government health policies on the utilization and design of hospital facilities; the relationship between housing density and the demands on public transportation or other service facilities: patterns and implications of urban development and air or water pollution. Studies devoted to the anticipations of and response to future needs for social, health and other human services, e.g. the relationship between industrial growth and the development of educational resources in affected areas; investigation of future demands for material and child health resources in a developing country; design of effective recycling in an urban setting.
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