Factors and mechanisms shaping vacant urban underground space in Shanghai

Existing research predominantly highlights the positive factors facilitating the development and utilization of urban underground space (UUS). However, the constraints and challenges should not be overlooked. Recognizing these limiting factors during the strategic planning and management phases of UUS is essential for enhancing utilization efficiency. To comprehensively understand the constraints on UUS utilization and tackle inefficiencies and vacancies stemming from rapid UUS development, this study adopts a research process of “hypothesis construction − model validation − mechanism exploration” to systematically analyze the key factors contributing to the vacancy of UUS in Shanghai. Through the application of a multiple linear regression model, seven significant factors affecting the distribution intensity of vacant UUS in Shanghai were identified and categorized into 3 major categories: location characteristics, management characteristics, and attribute characteristics. The study reveals that, under certain conditions, the positive driving force of UUS development may transform into a reverse impact inhibiting its effective utilization. By combining field investigations and interviews, the study delves into the underlying mechanisms of the influential factors, revealing that the limitations of demand forecasting and the inadequacy of management systems are the core issues causing vacant UUS. This study emphasizes the importance of innovating UUS demand forecasting methods and clarifying the rights and responsibilities of UUS stakeholders, thereby providing a scientific basis for the rational planning and effective management of UUS. The research findings not only contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the complexities influencing UUS development and utilization but also provide crucial guidance for fostering the sustainable development of UUS.