Lea Lenglart, Luigi Titomanlio, Zsolt Bognar, Silvia Bressan, Danilo Buonsenso, Tisham De, Ruth Farrugia, Kate Honeyford, Ian K Maconochie, Henriette A Moll, Rianne Oostenbrink, Niccolo Parri, Damian Roland, Esra Akyüz Özkan, Laura Almeida, Ilaria Alberti, François Angoulvant, Zein Assad, Camille Aupiais, Michael Barrett, Romain Basmaci, Dorine Borensztajn, Susana Castanhinha, Antonio Chiaretti, Robert Cohen, Sheena Durnin, Patrick Fitzpatrick, Susanne Greber-Platzer, Romain Guedj, Florian Hey, Lina Jankauskaite, Kristina Keitel, Ines Mascarenhas, Gregorio P Milani, Anna Maria Musolino, Zanda Pučuka, Malin Ryd Rinder, Maria Chiara Supino, Francesca Tirelli, Ruud G Nijman, Naim Ouldali
{"title":"COVID-19 大流行后小儿呼吸道感染的激增与 \"免疫债务 \"的概念。","authors":"Lea Lenglart, Luigi Titomanlio, Zsolt Bognar, Silvia Bressan, Danilo Buonsenso, Tisham De, Ruth Farrugia, Kate Honeyford, Ian K Maconochie, Henriette A Moll, Rianne Oostenbrink, Niccolo Parri, Damian Roland, Esra Akyüz Özkan, Laura Almeida, Ilaria Alberti, François Angoulvant, Zein Assad, Camille Aupiais, Michael Barrett, Romain Basmaci, Dorine Borensztajn, Susana Castanhinha, Antonio Chiaretti, Robert Cohen, Sheena Durnin, Patrick Fitzpatrick, Susanne Greber-Platzer, Romain Guedj, Florian Hey, Lina Jankauskaite, Kristina Keitel, Ines Mascarenhas, Gregorio P Milani, Anna Maria Musolino, Zanda Pučuka, Malin Ryd Rinder, Maria Chiara Supino, Francesca Tirelli, Ruud G Nijman, Naim Ouldali","doi":"10.1016/j.jpeds.2024.114420","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>To investigate a dose-response relationship between the magnitude of decrease in pediatric respiratory tract infections (RTI) during the 2020 implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) and the rise thereafter during NPI lifting.</p><p><strong>Study design: </strong>We conducted an interrupted, time-series analysis, based on a multinational surveillance system. All patients <16 years of age coming to medical attention with various symptoms and signs of RTI at 25 pediatric emergency departments from 13 European countries between January 2018 and June 2022 were included. We used generalized additive models to correlate the magnitude of decrease of each RTI during NPI (such as social distancing) implementation and its subsequent increase during NPI lifting. Urinary tract infections (UTI) served as control outcome.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>528,055 patients were included. We observed reductions in cases during the NPI period, from -76% (95%CI -113;-53) in pneumonia) to -65% (95%CI[-100;-39) for tonsillitis/pharyngitis), followed by strong increases during NPI lifting, from +83% (95%CI 29;150) for tonsillitis/pharyngitis) to +329% (95%CI (149;517) bronchiolitis). For each RTI, we found a significant association between the magnitude of decrease during NPI implementation and the increase during NPI lifting. UTI cases remained stable.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The magnitude of increase in RTI observed following NPI lifting was directly correlated to the magnitude of cases' reduction during NPI implementation, suggesting a \"dose-response\" relationship from an \"immune debt\" phenomenon. 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All patients <16 years of age coming to medical attention with various symptoms and signs of RTI at 25 pediatric emergency departments from 13 European countries between January 2018 and June 2022 were included. We used generalized additive models to correlate the magnitude of decrease of each RTI during NPI (such as social distancing) implementation and its subsequent increase during NPI lifting. Urinary tract infections (UTI) served as control outcome.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>528,055 patients were included. We observed reductions in cases during the NPI period, from -76% (95%CI -113;-53) in pneumonia) to -65% (95%CI[-100;-39) for tonsillitis/pharyngitis), followed by strong increases during NPI lifting, from +83% (95%CI 29;150) for tonsillitis/pharyngitis) to +329% (95%CI (149;517) bronchiolitis). For each RTI, we found a significant association between the magnitude of decrease during NPI implementation and the increase during NPI lifting. 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Surge of Pediatric Respiratory Tract Infections After the COVID-19 Pandemic and the Concept of "Immune Debt".
Objective: To investigate a dose-response relationship between the magnitude of decrease in pediatric respiratory tract infections (RTI) during the 2020 implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) and the rise thereafter during NPI lifting.
Study design: We conducted an interrupted, time-series analysis, based on a multinational surveillance system. All patients <16 years of age coming to medical attention with various symptoms and signs of RTI at 25 pediatric emergency departments from 13 European countries between January 2018 and June 2022 were included. We used generalized additive models to correlate the magnitude of decrease of each RTI during NPI (such as social distancing) implementation and its subsequent increase during NPI lifting. Urinary tract infections (UTI) served as control outcome.
Results: 528,055 patients were included. We observed reductions in cases during the NPI period, from -76% (95%CI -113;-53) in pneumonia) to -65% (95%CI[-100;-39) for tonsillitis/pharyngitis), followed by strong increases during NPI lifting, from +83% (95%CI 29;150) for tonsillitis/pharyngitis) to +329% (95%CI (149;517) bronchiolitis). For each RTI, we found a significant association between the magnitude of decrease during NPI implementation and the increase during NPI lifting. UTI cases remained stable.
Conclusions: The magnitude of increase in RTI observed following NPI lifting was directly correlated to the magnitude of cases' reduction during NPI implementation, suggesting a "dose-response" relationship from an "immune debt" phenomenon. The likely rebound in RTIs should be expected when implementing and lifting NPI in the future.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Pediatrics is an international peer-reviewed journal that advances pediatric research and serves as a practical guide for pediatricians who manage health and diagnose and treat disorders in infants, children, and adolescents. The Journal publishes original work based on standards of excellence and expert review. The Journal seeks to publish high quality original articles that are immediately applicable to practice (basic science, translational research, evidence-based medicine), brief clinical and laboratory case reports, medical progress, expert commentary, grand rounds, insightful editorials, “classic” physical examinations, and novel insights into clinical and academic pediatric medicine related to every aspect of child health. Published monthly since 1932, The Journal of Pediatrics continues to promote the latest developments in pediatric medicine, child health, policy, and advocacy.
Topics covered in The Journal of Pediatrics include, but are not limited to:
General Pediatrics
Pediatric Subspecialties
Adolescent Medicine
Allergy and Immunology
Cardiology
Critical Care Medicine
Developmental-Behavioral Medicine
Endocrinology
Gastroenterology
Hematology-Oncology
Infectious Diseases
Neonatal-Perinatal Medicine
Nephrology
Neurology
Emergency Medicine
Pulmonology
Rheumatology
Genetics
Ethics
Health Service Research
Pediatric Hospitalist Medicine.
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