Qingying Yao, Bo Jiang, Jie Wu, Gaoqin Liu, Peirong Lu
{"title":"1990-2019年中国屈光障碍致盲流行趋势及其预测：2019年全球疾病负担研究结果》。","authors":"Qingying Yao, Bo Jiang, Jie Wu, Gaoqin Liu, Peirong Lu","doi":"10.1080/09286586.2024.2407900","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Purpose: </strong>To examine the burden of blindness caused by refraction disorders (BCRD) in China over the past 30 years by year, age, and sex, and to estimate future projections.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2019 database were used to analyze the number of cases and age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPRs) of BCRD in China from 1990 to 2019. We focused on changes over time using estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs). In addition, we performed the Nordpred analysis and the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model with integrated nested Laplace approximations to predict the BCRD burden from 2020 to 2034.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The number of prevalent cases due to BCRD increased from 750,956.7 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 636,381.24-872,040.62) in 1990 to 1,145,881.76 (95% UI 931,966.43-1,342,338.18) in 2019. The ASPRs of BCRD showed a decreasing trend, with EAPCs of -0.58 (95% confidence interval [CI] -0.81-0.36). The older and female populations had a higher BCRD burden. The number of prevalent cases due to BCRD is projected to continue to increase from 1.33 million in 2020 to 1.86 million in 2034. The ASPR also showed an increasing trend over the next 15 years.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Over the past three decades, the prevalence of BCRD in China has improved in both sexes and will continue to increase in the next 15 years. This study highlights the importance of prevention of BCRD, especially for women and the elderly.</p>","PeriodicalId":19607,"journal":{"name":"Ophthalmic epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"1-8"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7000,"publicationDate":"2024-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The Trends in Prevalence of Blindness Caused by Refraction Disorders in China from 1990 to 2019 and Its Predictions: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.\",\"authors\":\"Qingying Yao, Bo Jiang, Jie Wu, Gaoqin Liu, Peirong Lu\",\"doi\":\"10.1080/09286586.2024.2407900\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Purpose: </strong>To examine the burden of blindness caused by refraction disorders (BCRD) in China over the past 30 years by year, age, and sex, and to estimate future projections.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2019 database were used to analyze the number of cases and age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPRs) of BCRD in China from 1990 to 2019. We focused on changes over time using estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs). In addition, we performed the Nordpred analysis and the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model with integrated nested Laplace approximations to predict the BCRD burden from 2020 to 2034.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The number of prevalent cases due to BCRD increased from 750,956.7 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 636,381.24-872,040.62) in 1990 to 1,145,881.76 (95% UI 931,966.43-1,342,338.18) in 2019. The ASPRs of BCRD showed a decreasing trend, with EAPCs of -0.58 (95% confidence interval [CI] -0.81-0.36). The older and female populations had a higher BCRD burden. The number of prevalent cases due to BCRD is projected to continue to increase from 1.33 million in 2020 to 1.86 million in 2034. The ASPR also showed an increasing trend over the next 15 years.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Over the past three decades, the prevalence of BCRD in China has improved in both sexes and will continue to increase in the next 15 years. This study highlights the importance of prevention of BCRD, especially for women and the elderly.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":19607,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Ophthalmic epidemiology\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"1-8\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-11-22\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Ophthalmic epidemiology\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1080/09286586.2024.2407900\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"OPHTHALMOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Ophthalmic epidemiology","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09286586.2024.2407900","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"OPHTHALMOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
The Trends in Prevalence of Blindness Caused by Refraction Disorders in China from 1990 to 2019 and Its Predictions: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.
Purpose: To examine the burden of blindness caused by refraction disorders (BCRD) in China over the past 30 years by year, age, and sex, and to estimate future projections.
Methods: Data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2019 database were used to analyze the number of cases and age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPRs) of BCRD in China from 1990 to 2019. We focused on changes over time using estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs). In addition, we performed the Nordpred analysis and the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model with integrated nested Laplace approximations to predict the BCRD burden from 2020 to 2034.
Results: The number of prevalent cases due to BCRD increased from 750,956.7 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 636,381.24-872,040.62) in 1990 to 1,145,881.76 (95% UI 931,966.43-1,342,338.18) in 2019. The ASPRs of BCRD showed a decreasing trend, with EAPCs of -0.58 (95% confidence interval [CI] -0.81-0.36). The older and female populations had a higher BCRD burden. The number of prevalent cases due to BCRD is projected to continue to increase from 1.33 million in 2020 to 1.86 million in 2034. The ASPR also showed an increasing trend over the next 15 years.
Conclusion: Over the past three decades, the prevalence of BCRD in China has improved in both sexes and will continue to increase in the next 15 years. This study highlights the importance of prevention of BCRD, especially for women and the elderly.
期刊介绍：
Ophthalmic Epidemiology is dedicated to the publication of original research into eye and vision health in the fields of epidemiology, public health and the prevention of blindness. Ophthalmic Epidemiology publishes editorials, original research reports, systematic reviews and meta-analysis articles, brief communications and letters to the editor on all subjects related to ophthalmic epidemiology. A broad range of topics is suitable, such as: evaluating the risk of ocular diseases, general and specific study designs, screening program implementation and evaluation, eye health care access, delivery and outcomes, therapeutic efficacy or effectiveness, disease prognosis and quality of life, cost-benefit analysis, biostatistical theory and risk factor analysis. We are looking to expand our engagement with reports of international interest, including those regarding problems affecting developing countries, although reports from all over the world potentially are suitable. Clinical case reports, small case series (not enough for a cohort analysis) articles and animal research reports are not appropriate for this journal.
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