Olga Maria Nardone, Fabiana Castiglione, Simone Maurea
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引用次数: 0
摘要
该文章旨在预测克罗恩病(CD)患者回盲部切除术后出现短期主要术后并发症(Clavien-Dindo ≥ III 级)的可能性,包括吻合口瘘、腹腔内败血症、出血、30 天内肠梗阻以及住院时间延长。这一预测依赖于在一个队列中训练的机器学习(ML)模型,该模型整合了逻辑回归分析得出的提名图预测模型和随机森林(RF)模型。提名图和随机森林模型都显示出良好的性能,其中随机森林模型的预测能力更强。被确定为潜在关键变量的关键变量包括术前 CD 活动指数≥220、术前血清白蛋白水平低和手术时间长。应用 ML 方法预测手术复发有可能加强对患者的风险分层,促进术前优化策略的制定,最终改善手术后的预后。不过,该方法仍有改进的余地,特别是在未来的研究工作中纳入更多相关临床参数、考虑药物疗法以及潜在的分子生物标记物。
Advancing perioperative optimization in Crohn's disease surgery with machine learning predictions.
This editorial offers commentary on the article which aimed to forecast the likelihood of short-term major postoperative complications (Clavien-Dindo grade ≥ III), including anastomotic fistula, intra-abdominal sepsis, bleeding, and intestinal obstruction within 30 days, as well as prolonged hospital stays following ileocecal resection in patients with Crohn's disease (CD). This prediction relied on a machine learning (ML) model trained on a cohort that integrated a nomogram predictive model derived from logistic regression analysis and a random forest (RF) model. Both the nomogram and RF showed good performance, with the RF model demonstrating superior predictive ability. Key variables identified as potentially critical include a preoperative CD activity index ≥ 220, low preoperative serum albumin levels, and prolonged operation duration. Applying ML approaches to predict surgical recurrence have the potential to enhance patient risk stratification and facilitate the development of preoperative optimization strategies, ultimately aiming to improve post-surgical outcomes. However, there is still room for improvement, particularly by the inclusion of additional relevant clinical parameters, consideration of medical therapies, and potentially integrating molecular biomarkers in future research efforts.