Predictive model for congenital heart disease in children of Pakistan by using structural equation modeling.

Background: The structural abnormality of the heart and its blood vessels at the time of birth is known as congenital heart disease. Every year in Pakistan, sixty thousand children are born with CHD, and 44 in 1000 die before they are a month old. Various studies used different techniques to estimate the risk factors of congenital heart disease, but these techniques suffer from a deficiency of capacity to present human understanding and a deficiency of adequate data. The current study provided an innovative approach by defining the latent variables to handle this issue and building a reasonable model.

Method: Data used in this study has been collected from mothers and hospital records of the children. The dataset contains information on 3900 children who visited the OPD of the Chaudry Pervaiz Elahi Institute of Cardiology (CPEIC) Multan, Pakistan from October 2021 to September 2022. The latent variables were defined from the data and structural equation modeling was used to model them.

Result: The results show that there are 53.6% of males have acyanotic CHD and 54.5% have cyanotic CHD. There are 46.4% of females have acyanotic CHD and 45.5% have cyanotic CHD. The children who have no diabetes in the family are 64.0% and children who have diabetes in the family are 36.0% in acyanotic CHD, the children who have no diabetes in the family are 59.7% and children have diabetes in the family are 40.3% in cyanotic CHD. The value of standardized root mean residual is 0.087 is less than 0.089 which shows that the model is a good fit. The value of root mean square error of approximation is 0.113 is less than 0.20 which also shows the good fit of the model.

Conclusion: It was concluded that the model is a good fit. Also, the latent variables, socioeconomic factors, and environmental factors of mothers during pregnancy have a significant effect in causing cyanotic while poor general health factor increases the risk of Acyanotic congenital heart disease.