Environmental uncertainty, supply chain, and stability of sustainable green innovation:Based on micro evidence from energy-intensive enterprises

In the context of the low-carbon transformation of energy-intensive enterprises, the stability risks of continuous green innovation and their transmission mechanisms within the supply chain warrant attention. Specifically, will these stability risks be transmitted along the supply chain? If so, how are they transmitted? Therefore, this study focuses on Chinese energy-intensive enterprises and their upstream and downstream companies from 2008 to 2021. It explores the transmission effects of stability risks of continuous green innovation within the supply chain and the role of environmental uncertainty. By quantifying stability risk indicators of continuous green innovation and analyzing supply chain mechanisms, the study reveals the asymmetry of risk transmission and the directional and moderating effects of environmental uncertainty. The results indicate that stability risks of continuous green innovation primarily transmit upstream in the supply chain. Mechanism variables include financing constraints, degree of green transformation, and coordination of supply relationships. Additionally, the study finds that differences in supply structure contribute to heterogeneity in the transmission effect. These findings provide theoretical support for risk management strategies of energy-intensive enterprises in green innovation. It also provides practical guidance on strengthening coordination in green innovation and optimizing supply chain structure to reduce stability risk exposure.