过去 40 年黄河上游流域暖季强降水的年代际变化及相关大气环流异常

IF 4.5 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Peilong Ye , Qiang Zhang , Jianshun Wang , Xinwei Liu , Dong Wei , Weicheng Liu , Yan Li , Xiaoyuan Huang , Zewen Gan
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引用次数: 0

摘要

黄河上游流域(UYRB)位于青藏高原、黄土高原和内蒙古高原的交界处,在区域气候动力学、水文过程和生态稳定性方面起着举足轻重的作用,这主要归因于其降水的多变性。本研究利用台站观测数据和大气再分析数据,研究了 1980-2020 年间乌裕拉地区暖季强降水的年代际变率。此外,它还对影响不同时期观测到的强降水变化的大气环流模式进行了比较评估。分析表明,2003 年前后暖季总降水量(WSTP)、强降水量(R90p)和强降水频率(R90d)发生了明显的年代际变化。强降水对总降水量的贡献率约为 40%,而强降水的变化占 UYRB 总降水量增加的 81%,小降水的贡献率为负,中降水的贡献率略微为正。此外,强降水频率的变化贡献最大,达到 7 毫米/10a,而降水强度仅为 1.5 毫米/10a。2003 年以后,暖季强降水频率(R90d)增加了 14.4%,而强降水强度(R90t)仅增加了 4.3%,这表明 R90d 的增加主要推动了 UYRB 上 WSTP 的长期趋势。比较了 1980-2002 年(时期 1)和 2003-2020 年(时期 2)两个不同时期的水汽输送、水汽含量、不稳定能量和垂直运动等关键因素。在 P2 期间,整个大气柱的异常偏东水汽输送和水汽辐合明显增强,导致净水汽输入量比 P1 增加了近 50%,大气柱总水汽含量增加了 2.7%。大气的不稳定性略有增加,在黄河源区和甘肃省中部发现了明显的异常辐合上升运动,这可能是受地貌效应的影响。自 2003 年以来,欧亚大陆对流层中高层出现了类似丝绸之路的 "+ - +"带状远程联系模式,加强了来自印度洋和太平洋的西向水汽输送。这一变化与暖季水汽供应和垂直上升的增加相吻合,这有利于在 UYRB 上大幅增加强降水。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Interdecadal shifts and associated atmospheric circulation anomalies of heavy precipitation during the warm-season in the Upper Yellow River Basin over the past 40 years
The Upper Yellow River Basin (UYRB), located at the junction of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Loess Plateau, and Inner Mongolia Plateau, plays a pivotal role in regional climate dynamics, hydrological processes, and ecological stability, primarily due to its precipitation variability. This study utilizes station-based observational data alongside atmospheric reanalysis data to investigate the interdecadal variability of heavy precipitation during the warm-season from 1980 to 2020 in the UYRB. Furthermore, it provides a comparative assessment of the atmospheric circulation patterns that influenced the observed shifts in heavy precipitation across different periods. The analysis revealed pronounced interdecadal changes in warm-season total precipitation (WSTP), heavy precipitation amount (R90p), and heavy precipitation frequency (R90d) around 2003. Heavy precipitation contributes approximately 40 % to the total precipitation, while changes in heavy precipitation account for up to 81 % of the increased total precipitation in the UYRB, the light precipitation exhibit a negative contribution, and moderate precipitation shows a slight positive contribution. Additionally, the variation in the frequency of heavy precipitation contributes the most, reaching 7 mm/10a, while the intensity of precipitation is only 1.5 mm/10a. After 2003, the frequency of heavy precipitation (R90d) during the warm-season increased by 14.4 %, whereas the intensity of heavy precipitation (R90t) rose by a modest 4.3 %, indicating that the increase in R90d predominantly drives the long-term trend in WSTP over the UYRB. The key factors such as moisture transport, moisture content, instability energy, and vertical motion were compared between two distinct periods: 1980–2002 (Period1) and 2003–2020 (Period2). During P2, there was a marked intensification of anomalous easterly moisture transport and moisture convergence throughout the atmospheric column, resulting in a nearly 50 % increases in net moisture input and a rise of 2.7 % in total columnar moisture content relative to P1. Atmospheric instability exhibited a slight increase, with notable anomalous convergent upward motion detected over the source region of the Yellow River and central Gansu province, likely intensified by orographic effects. A zonally-oriented “+ - +” Silk Road-like teleconnection pattern emerged in the mid-to-upper troposphere over Eurasia since 2003, enhancing westward moisture transport from the Indian Ocean and Pacific. This shift corresponded with increased moisture availability and vertical ascent during the warm-season, which is conducive to a significant increase in heavy precipitation over the UYRB.
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来源期刊
Atmospheric Research
Atmospheric Research 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
9.40
自引率
10.90%
发文量
460
审稿时长
47 days
期刊介绍: The journal publishes scientific papers (research papers, review articles, letters and notes) dealing with the part of the atmosphere where meteorological events occur. Attention is given to all processes extending from the earth surface to the tropopause, but special emphasis continues to be devoted to the physics of clouds, mesoscale meteorology and air pollution, i.e. atmospheric aerosols; microphysical processes; cloud dynamics and thermodynamics; numerical simulation, climatology, climate change and weather modification.
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