Rebuilding and Reference Points Under Compensatory and Depensatory Recruitment: A Meta-Analysis of Northeast Atlantic Fish Stocks

Modern management of fish stocks is based on integrating the precautionary approach with the maximum sustainable yield framework. It relies on accurate estimation of precautionary limits, defined as levels of spawning biomass where a stock has reduced reproductive capacity, and harvesting targets aimed to maximise future yields. Therefore, it is heavily depending on productivity assumptions. Most fish stocks are managed assuming that productivity will increase as the stock size decreases (i.e., density dependent compensatory stock and recruitment relationship). However, several biological and ecological processes will result in a decreased productivity below a certain population size, referred to as the Allee effect or depensation. Through a meta-analysis of 81 Northeast Atlantic fish stocks, we investigated the impact of assuming compensatory recruitment in the presence of depensation in fisheries management. Across life histories, depensation results in a 22% reduction of the fishing mortality rate leading to extinction. On average, the maximum reproductive rate per spawning biomass was found at 35% of B_MSY, which was also the biomass where stocks have a 5% risk of extinction without fishing. Finally, the presence of depensation resulted in increased rebuilding times when stock spawning biomass falls below the limit reference point. When depensatory effects are present, assuming increasing productivity at low biomass will generally result in over-optimistic perceptions of rebuilding and stock status at biomass below 25% and 45% of B_MSY in general, and for pelagic stocks respectively. When not accounted for, depensation will potentially lead to unsustainable harvesting practices of marine living resources.