How predictability and individual alpha frequency shape memory: Insights from an event-related potential investigation

Prediction and memory are strongly intertwined, with predictions relying on memory retrieval, whilst also influencing memory encoding. However, it is unclear how predictability influences explicit memory performance, and how individual neural factors may modulate this relationship. The current study sought to investigate the effect of predictability on memory processing with an analysis of the N400 event-related potential in a context extending beyond language. Participants (N = 48, females = 33) completed a study-test paradigm where they first viewed predictable and unpredictable four-item ‘ABCD’ sequences of outdoor scene images, whilst their brain activity was recorded using electroencephalography. Subsequently, their memory for the images was tested, and N400 patterns during learning were compared with memory outcomes. Behavioural results revealed better memory for images in predictable sequences in contrast to unpredictable sequences. Memory was also strongest for predictable images in the ‘B’ position, suggesting that when processing longer sequences, the brain may prioritise the data deemed most informative. Strikingly, greater N400 amplitudes during learning were associated with enhanced memory at test for individuals with low versus high individual alpha frequencies. In light of the relationship between the N400 and stimulus predictability, this finding may imply that predictive processing differs between individuals to influence the extent of memory encoding. Finally, exploratory analyses provided evidence for a later positivity that was predictive of subsequent memory performance. Ultimately, the results highlight the complex and interconnected relationship between predictive processing and memory, whilst shedding light on the accumulation of predictions across longer sequences.