Sustainable land and irrigation management to limit loss of hydropower in the Andes-Amazon headwaters

Water plays a critical role in adapting food and energy systems to climate change in the Andes. However, robust climate solutions that work across sectors have not been explored for these working landscapes. Here we develop a framework consisting of high-fidelity catchment and hydropower models while considering climate and other uncertainties in a robust, bottom-up manner for the upper Huallaga River in Peru. We then explore adaptation strategies across sectors. Our results highlight that irrigation will be critical for maintaining food production under climate change. Yet, an unplanned expansion of irrigation could lead to a near total loss of firm hydropower downstream. Exploring 10,080 possible landuse/management adaptation pathways, we find limited opportunities for win-win solutions under climate change. In the light of such challenges, our results highlight the need for navigating structural trade-offs between upstream land and water users and downstream interests in the Andes in a strategic and equitable manner. In the Andean Amazon basin, irrigation will be vital to maintaining food production and livelihoods of local communities under climate change, but unplanned irrigation expansion could lead to the loss of hydropower, according to an analysis using catchment and hydropower models.