Modified Bayesian method for simultaneously imaging fault geometry and slip distribution with reduced uncertainty, applied to 2017 Mw 7.3 Sarpol-e Zahab (Iran) earthquake

Inverting fault geometry and slip distribution simultaneously with geodetic observations based on Bayesian theory is becoming increasingly prevalent. A widely used approach, proposed by (Fukuda and Johnson, Geophys J Int 181:1441–1458, 2010) (F-J method), employs the least-squares method to solve the linear parameters of slip distribution after sampling the nonlinear parameters, including fault geometry, data weights and smoothing factor. Here, we present a modified version of the F-J method (MF-J method), which treats data weights and the smoothing factor as hyperparameters not directly linked to surface deformation. Additionally, we introduce the variance component estimation (VCE) method to resolve these hyperparameters. To validate the effectiveness of the MF-J method, we conducted inversion tests using both synthetic data and a real earthquake case. In our comparison of the MF-J and F-J methods using synthetic experiments, we found that the F-J method's inversion results for fault geometry were highly sensitive to the initial values and step sizes of hyperparameters, whereas the MF-J method exhibited greater robustness and stability. The MF-J method also exhibited a higher and more stable acceptance rate, enabling convergence to simulated values and ensuring greater accuracy of the parameter estimation. Furthermore, treating the fault length and width as unknown parameters and solving them simultaneously with other fault geometry parameters and hyperparameters using the MF-J method successfully resolved the issue of non-uniqueness in fault location solutions caused by the excessively large no-slip areas. In the 2017 Mw 7.3 Sarpol-e Zahab earthquake case study, the MF-J method produced a fault slip distribution with low uncertainty that accurately fit surface observation data, aligning with results from other research institutions. This validated the method's applicability and robustness in real-world scenarios. Additionally, we inferred that the second slip asperity was caused by early afterslip.