Development of a clinical prediction model for pathological upgrading in low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions following cervical conization.

Objective: This study aimed to identify key factors influencing post-operative pathologic escalation in Chinese women with histologic cervical low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (LSILs) undergoing cervical conization and construct a predictive nomogram model.

Material and methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted on 107 patients with LSIL from Bengbu City, Anhui Province, China, who underwent cervical conization at the First Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical College from January 2019 to January 2023. Patients were categorized into groups based on post-operative pathological upgrade. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses identified independent risk factors. A nomogram model was developed and evaluated for clinical predictive ability using calibration curves, the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results: Post-operative pathological upgrades were experienced by 39.3% of patients with LSIL. Independent risk factors for escalation included positive human papillomavirus (HPV)16/18/52/53/58 high-risk types (P < 0.05, OR = 4.95, 95% CI = 1.32-18.46), ThinPrep Cytology Test (TCT) results indicating high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HSIL)/atypical squamous cells, cannot exclude a high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (ASC-H)/atypical glandular cells ( AGC) (P < 0.01, OR = 13.12, 95% CI = 3.10-55.50), and cervical transformation zone (TZ) type III (P < 0.05, OR = 6.10, 95% CI = 1.65-22.56). Based on these factors, the nomogram demonstrated good differentiation and calibration (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.744, 95% CI: 0.674-0.839). DCA indicated high clinical predictive value.

Conclusion: HPV16/18/52/53/58 high-risk types, TCT HSIL/ASC-H/AGC, and colposcopic cervical TZ type III are independent risk factors for post-operative pathologic escalation in LSIL. Consideration of pre-operative HPV, TCT results, and cervical TZ type is crucial for effective triage and patient management. The constructed nomogram provides a practical tool for risk assessment of patients with LSIL undergoing cervical conization.