评估区域、区域气候模式和全球气候模式对包括约旦在内的重叠区域 CORDEX 模拟不确定性的单独贡献

IF 3.5 3区 地球科学 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Hebah Alkhasoneh, Clinton Rowe
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引用次数: 0

摘要

协调区域降尺度试验(CORDEX)提供了一个框架,用于在基于大陆的重叠域上进行区域气候降尺度试验;这样就可以进行多模式分析。然而,有人提出了一个问题,即由于域的选择而产生的不确定性。本研究旨在评估 CORDEX 模拟对包括约旦在内的中东研究区域的域选择、降尺区域气候模式(RCM)和驱动全球模式(GCM)的敏感性。了解这些敏感性有助于评估模拟的不确定性和加强区域气候变化预测。泰勒图和方差分解分析用于分析季节温度和降水气候学。结果表明,域对变异的贡献可以忽略不计,而全球气候模式和区域气候模式的选择对模拟有很大影响。气温的变异受驱动模式(全球气候模式)的影响很大,而区域气候模式对降水的影响更大,这反映了它们的大尺度和局地性质。这项研究的结果支持了多域集合的发展,因为同一 GCM-RCM 模式组合在不同重叠域产生的预测结果是一致的。另一方面,这种方法有助于考虑和全面量化在这种集合中利用多个 GCM 和 RCM 所产生的不确定性。这就提高了区域气候信息的可靠性,从而有助于制定有效的适应战略和减缓计划。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Assessing the separate contribution of the domain, RCM and GCM to the uncertainty in CORDEX simulations over the overlapped regions that include Jordan

Assessing the separate contribution of the domain, RCM and GCM to the uncertainty in CORDEX simulations over the overlapped regions that include Jordan

The Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) offers a framework for regional climate downscaling experiments over continental-based domains that overlap; this allows for conducting multimodel analysis. However, a question is raised about the uncertainty due to domain selection. This study aims to evaluate the sensitivity of CORDEX simulations to the choices of domain, downscaling regional climate model (RCM) and driving global model (GCM) over a Middle East study region, including Jordan. Understanding these sensitivities helps assess simulation uncertainties and enhance regional climate change projections. Taylor diagrams and variance decomposition analyses were used to analyse seasonal temperature and precipitation climatologies. The results indicate that the domain contribution to variance is negligible, whereas the choice of GCM and RCM strongly influences simulations. Variance in temperature is significantly impacted by the driving model (GCM), whereas RCM has a higher influence on precipitation, which reflects their large-scale versus local nature. The results of this study support the development of multidomain ensembles since projections produced by the same GCM–RCM model combination are consistent across different overlapping domains. On the other hand, this approach facilitates the consideration as well as a comprehensive quantification of the uncertainties arising from the utilization of multiple GCMs and RCMs within such an ensemble. This improves the reliability of regional climate information, thus facilitating the development of effective adaptation strategies and mitigation plans.

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来源期刊
International Journal of Climatology
International Journal of Climatology 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
7.50
自引率
7.70%
发文量
417
审稿时长
4 months
期刊介绍: The International Journal of Climatology aims to span the well established but rapidly growing field of climatology, through the publication of research papers, short communications, major reviews of progress and reviews of new books and reports in the area of climate science. The Journal’s main role is to stimulate and report research in climatology, from the expansive fields of the atmospheric, biophysical, engineering and social sciences. Coverage includes: Climate system science; Local to global scale climate observations and modelling; Seasonal to interannual climate prediction; Climatic variability and climate change; Synoptic, dynamic and urban climatology, hydroclimatology, human bioclimatology, ecoclimatology, dendroclimatology, palaeoclimatology, marine climatology and atmosphere-ocean interactions; Application of climatological knowledge to environmental assessment and management and economic production; Climate and society interactions
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