How do trade-offs between ecological construction and urbanization affect regional carbon balance? A case study from China’s Yellow River Basin

Anthropogenic activities, including trade-offs between ecological construction and urbanization, alter land use by either adding or subtracting from the carbon balance. Therefore, it is unknown how the trade-offs between ecological construction and urbanization impact the regional carbon balance. We selected the Yellow River Basin for this study to shed light on how human activity affects the carbon balance and promote the advancement of the objective of becoming carbon–neutral. Using panel data, soil respiration data, and GEM-CO₂ models, carbon emissions and sinks in multiple fields were quantified on a raster scale based on multi-source remote sensing data. The trade-offs between urbanization and ecological construction were then spatially illustrated through changes in ground cover. Finally, a raster-scale study was conducted to investigate the ways in which trade-offs between urbanization and ecological construction impact the regional carbon balance. The basin was able to maintain a carbon balance in 2001; however, by 2019, it experienced a severe carbon imbalance. The primary causes of this were rapid growth in energy consumption and direct household waste incineration. By 2019, 84.79% of rasters had a trade-off connection, indicating an increasing trend in the degree of trade-off between ecological construction and urbanization. This affected the pattern of land use in the basin, which in turn affected the carbon balance. Rapid urbanization has exacerbated the carbon imbalance, but ecological construction can reverse this trend. The carbon balance was negatively correlated with the trade-off between ecological construction and urbanization, and the conversion of natural resources by human activity hastened the spread of regional carbon imbalances.