Invasion of Pine Wilt Disease: A threat to forest carbon storage in China

China’s forests, which balance atmospheric carbon (C) levels through photosynthesis, play a crucial role in combating global climate change. The emergence of Pine wilt disease (PWD), caused by the pine wood nematode (PWN, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus), has challenged the stability of these forests, leading to significant tree mortality and disrupting the original ecological balance. However, the impact of PWD on carbon storage and recovery in Chinese forests remains unclear. In this study, we integrated multiple data sources, including forest surveys, remote sensing, and meteorological observations, and applied a method of finely partitioning the resistance of host pine trees across China. Using the MaxEnt model, a live carbon risk model, and a C recovery REGIME model that incorporates disturbance mechanisms, we predicted the forest C risk loss caused by the comprehensive invasion of PWD and assessed the C recovery time for affected forests. We estimate that the total risk of C loss due to PWD invasion under current climate conditions in Chinese forests is 483.23 Tg C, with an average C recovery time of 13.95 years. The main risk areas for PWD are concentrated in the southern coastal regions of China and adjacent provinces, presenting a risk spillover pattern that radiates from focal areas outward. The six provinces with the highest forest risk degree (risk C/total regional C) are, in order, Fujian (13.69%), Zhejiang (9.42%), Hunan (7.49%), Guangxi (7.40%), Jiangxi (7.35%), and Guangdong (7.05%). Our findings indicate that the severe consequences of PWD invasion have transformed affected forests from C sinks to sources. This underscores the urgency of implementing effective measures to block its introduction and spread, thereby promoting the recovery and sustainable development of forest ecosystems.