长江典型流域多源数据评估下的未来长期径流预测

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Pub Date : 2024-11-10 DOI:10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.102053

Zheng Wang , Mingwei Li , Xuan Zhang , Fanghua Hao , Yongshuo H. Fu

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引用次数: 0

摘要

研究区域中国长江（YRB）三大典型流域研究重点降水等气象要素是水文系统的关键驱动因素，也是水文模拟的重要输入，准确的气象数据对模拟水文过程至关重要。本研究比较和评估了 CN05.1、CMFD 和 ERA5-L 以及长江三个典型流域的气象强迫数据集，并基于 CMIP6 数据预测了流域未来的径流变化。该研究表明：（1）CN05.1 数据在长江流域的年际尺度和年内尺度上表现出最佳适用性，ERA5-Land 在上游表现更好，CMFD 更适合中下游。(2）预计未来径流量将先减后增，与 ssp245 相比，sp585 情景下径流量的拐点和转折点出现得更早。CS 和 JZ 河流域的春季洪水风险增加，而 FH 河流域的洪水风险随着洪峰的提前而降低。(3) 预计未来将出现显著的趋势变化，气候变化将导致 CS 流域 90%以上的径流变化，而人为因素将对 JZ 和 FH 流域产生越来越大的影响。

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Prediction of long-term future runoff under multi-source data assessment in a typical basin of the Yangtze River

Study region

Three Typical Basins of the Yangtze River (YRB), China

Study focus

Meteorological factors, such as precipitation, are key drivers of the hydrological system and critical inputs in hydrological modeling, and accurate meteorological data are essential to simulate hydrological processes. This study compares and evaluates the CN05.1, CMFD, and ERA5-L and meteorological forcing datasets in three typical basins of the Yangtze River and predicts the future runoff changes in the basin based on CMIP6 data.

New hydrological insights for the region

This study indicated that (1) the CN05.1 data exhibit the best applicability on the interannual and intra-annual scales in YRB, while ERA5-Land performs better in the upper reaches, and CMFD is more suitable for the middle and lower reaches. (2) Future runoff is projected to initially decrease and then increase, with the inflection and inflections points of runoff occurring earlier in the ssp585 scenario compared to the ssp245. The risk of spring flooding is increasing in CS and JZ river basin, and the risk of flooding is decreasing in the FH River Basin as the flood peaks are earlier. (3) Significant trend changes are anticipated in the future, with climate change contributing over 90 % of the runoff changes in the CS, while human factors will increasingly influence the JZ and FH basins.

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来源期刊

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Earth and Planetary Sciences-Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)

CiteScore

6.70

自引率

8.50%

发文量

284

审稿时长

60 days

期刊介绍： Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies publishes original research papers enhancing the science of hydrology and aiming at region-specific problems, past and future conditions, analysis, review and solutions. The journal particularly welcomes research papers that deliver new insights into region-specific hydrological processes and responses to changing conditions, as well as contributions that incorporate interdisciplinarity and translational science.