What can wage development before and after a G93.3 diagnosis tell us about prognoses for myalgic encephalomyelitis?

Prognoses for persons affected by myalgic encephalomyelitis (ME) are rarely studied systematically. Existing studies are often based on smaller samples with unclear inclusion and subjective outcome criteria, and few look at wages as indicators of illness trajectories. This article considers how ME affects the wages and dependency on public transfers of people affected over time, especially in the period when the welfare authorities investigate eligibility for disability pension. We matched Norwegian population register data on 8485 working-age individuals diagnosed with G93.3 (postviral fatigue syndrome) from 2009 to 2018 with wage and transfer data and compared male and female cases to control groups. The G93.3 population's wages fell sharply from around 3 years before diagnosis to 1 year after and stabilized at a low level. Public transfers started increasing several years before diagnosis and stabilized at a high level after. Few of those making no or very low income around the time of the diagnosis resumed earning moderate wages, and only exceptional cases returned to wages corresponding to median wages.