模拟太阳能光伏应用的代理建模方法：爱尔兰奶牛场案例研究

IF 4.2 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS

Renewable Energy Focus Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI:10.1016/j.ref.2024.100653

Iias Faiud, Michael Schukat, Karl Mason

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引用次数: 0

摘要

鉴于电力成本不断攀升，农业部门面临着越来越大的提高能源效率的压力。本研究旨在利用基于代理的建模（ABM）方法，模拟爱尔兰奶牛业采用光伏系统的情况，以促进奶牛场主采用光伏系统。该模型纳入了电网能源成本、年耗电量、年太阳能发电量、光伏成本和维护费用等因素，以预测采用光伏系统的可能性。研究结果显示，到 2022 年，约有 2.41% 的爱尔兰奶农采用了光伏系统，这一数字仅比实际观察到的比例高 0.41 个百分点，验证了 ABM 的准确性。此外，研究还预测了未来奶牛场主采用光伏系统的比例，证明了 ABM 在了解和预测奶牛场可再生能源利用率方面的有效性。这些见解可以为促进可再生能源采用的政策建议提供参考，最终提高奶业的能源效率和可持续性。

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An agent-based modeling approach for simulating solar PV adoption: A case study of Irish dairy farms

The agricultural sector faces increasing pressure to enhance energy efficiency in light of escalating electricity costs. This study aims to simulate the adoption of photovoltaic (PV) systems in Ireland’s dairy sector using an agent-based modeling (ABM) approach to facilitate PV uptake among dairy farmers. The model incorporates factors such as grid energy costs, annual electricity consumption, annual solar generation, PV cost, and maintenance expenses to predict PV adoption likelihood. Findings reveal that by 2022, about 2.41% of Irish dairy farmers had adopted PV systems, a figure only 0.41 pp higher than the actual observed rate, validating the ABM’s accuracy. Additionally, the research forecasts future adoption rates of PV systems among dairy farmers, demonstrating the efficacy of ABM in understanding and predicting renewable energy uptake in the dairy sector. These insights can inform policy suggestions to promote renewable energy adoption, ultimately enhancing energy efficiency and sustainability in dairy sector.

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来源期刊

Renewable Energy Focus Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment

CiteScore

7.10

自引率

8.30%

发文量

审稿时长

48 days