Individual tree mortality: Risks of climate change in the eastern Brazilian Amazon region

The mortality of trees in humid tropical forests plays a fundamental role in understanding forest development, particularly after disturbances such as those caused by logging and extreme weather events. The aim of this study was to evaluate estimates of individual tree mortality following Reduced Impact Logging (RIL) in the Eastern Brazilian Amazon at biennial intervals from 2005 to 2012. RIL is based on operations planning, personnel training, and investments in forest management, and harvesting through RIL must: (a) minimize environmental damage, (b) diminish operation cost by increasing work efficiency, and (c) reduce operational waste. A mortality model was constructed based on the estimation of three distance-independent competition-indices (DII) and five models for predicting the probability of individual tree mortality. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistical test was used to determine the most representative model, from which a Neural Network Autoregressive (NNAR) model was constructed to forecast mortality after RIL. Mortality data was correlated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and climate (Rainfall, Maximum, Minimum, and Average air temperature). The tested models showed similar and accurate estimates with R² exceeding 0.90, although underestimation and overestimation trends were observed. The NNAR satisfactorily represented species mortality over the simulated years. The period from 2012 to 2014 was characterized by a Neutral and Weak El Niño event, and exhibited the highest mortality value for a 25 cm DBH (diameter at breast height), the smallest DBH class measured in this study. In the correlation matrix analysis, maximum air temperature showed the highest positive correlation with trees mortality. Despite the challenges in estimating individual tree mortality in tropical forests after selective logging, accurate estimates were achieved using traditional regression techniques and NNAR. These results can support technical and silvicultural decisions regarding forest management in the Eastern Amazon region of Brazil.