2022--2024 年疫情期间全球麻风病发病率和死亡率与人类发展指数（HDI）之间的关系

IF 3 4区医学 Q2 INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Brazilian Journal of Infectious Diseases Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI:10.1016/j.bjid.2024.104423

Alfonso J. Rodriguez-Morales , D. Katterine Bonilla-Aldana , Jaime A. Cardona-Ospina

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引用次数: 0

摘要

导言对 2022-2024 年期间麻风腮流行病的多个方面进行了探讨，包括临床特征、诊断、疗法和疫苗。然而，在流行病学相关因素方面，对社会经济方面的评估却很少。方法利用联合国开发计划署（UNDP）提供的人类发展指数数据，以及美国疾病控制中心（CDC）和世界卫生组织（WHO）提供的病例，计算发病率（每 10 万人中的病例数），对 104 个国家进行了生态学研究。此外，还计算了死亡率（每 10 万人中的病例数）和病死率（每 100 例病例中的死亡率，%CFR）。结果非线性回归模型显示了显著的结果。流行病学因素与人类发展指数之间的关系显著。在疫情期间，人类发展指数高的国家发病率较高（r2 = 0.4132; p < 0.0001），而这些国家的死亡率明显较低（r2 = 0.1317; p = 0.0007）。讨论/结论这些发现突出表明，人类发展指数等社会经济指标对全球麻风病发病率和死亡率以及病死率的影响很大，特别是在流行国家。尽管痘疹在 2022-2024 年期间流行，但在全球范围内仍是一种被忽视的疾病，2023-2024 年期间，痘疹将在刚果民主共和国等国家再次流行。因此，进一步研究痘病毒的多种流行病学因素至关重要。关键词痘病毒流行病人类发展全球监测利益冲突无利益冲突。

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RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY FROM MPOX AND THE HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX (HDI) GLOBALLY DURING 2022-2024 EPIDEMICS

Introduction

Multiple aspects of the epidemics of mpox during 2022-2024 have been explored, including clinical features, diagnostic aspects, therapies and vaccines. However, socioeconomic aspects have been poorly assessed in terms of the epidemiologically associated factors. No studies have been published on the relationships between the human development index (HDI) and the morbidity and mortality from Mpox.

Methods

An ecological study for 104 countries was done using HDI data that were obtained from the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), and the cases, calculating the incidence rates (cases per 100,000 pop.), from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO). Also, mortality rates (cases per 100,000 pop.) and case fatality rates (deaths per 100 cases, %CFR) were calculated. The annual variation of the variables was assessed, and non-linear regression models (exponential) were done at Stata/MP® v.14.0.

Results

The non-linear regression models revealed significant findings. The relationship between epidemiological factors and HDI was found to be significant. During this epidemic, a higher incidence was observed in countries with high HDI (r2 = 0.4132; p < 0.0001), while mortality rates were significantly lower in these countries (r2 = 0.1317; p = 0.0007). Conversely, the case fatality rate (%CFR) was significantly higher in countries with lower HDI (r2 = 0.1595; p = 0.0001).

Discussion/conclusions

These findings underscore the significant influence of socioeconomic indicators such as the HDI on the Mpox incidence and mortality rates and on %CFR globally, particularly in endemic countries. Despite the epidemics of 2022-2024, Mpox remains a neglected condition worldwide, with a resurgence in countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo in 2023-2024. Therefore, the need for further studies on multiple epidemiological factors of Mpox is paramount.

Keywords

Mpox, Epidemics, Human Development, Global, Surveillance.

Conflicts of interest

There was no conflicts of interest.

Ethics and financing

No financial support.

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来源期刊

Brazilian Journal of Infectious Diseases 医学-传染病学

CiteScore

5.50

自引率

0.00%

发文量

925

审稿时长

41 days

期刊介绍： The Brazilian Journal of Infectious Diseases is the official publication of the Brazilian Society of Infectious Diseases (SBI). It aims to publish relevant articles in the broadest sense on all aspects of microbiology, infectious diseases and immune response to infectious agents. The BJID is a bimonthly publication and one of the most influential journals in its field in Brazil and Latin America with a high impact factor, since its inception it has garnered a growing share of the publishing market.