Assessing the environmental and economic impacts of intracity express delivery: Pathways for carbon reduction and cost efficiency in China

With the rapid development of e-commerce, the environmental impacts and economic costs of intracity express delivery, along with reduction pathways, however, remain largely unexplored. Therefore, we compiled carbon emission inventories of express delivery at the intracity scale covering the entire process from warehouse to consumers. Additionally, five pathways were designed and compared to explore the feasible measures for coordinated carbon reduction and cost-effective efficiency improvements, incorporating new technologies such as electric vehicles and autonomous driving. The results show that carbon emissions from intracity express delivery in China surged from 97 kt in 2013 to 1143 kt in 2021. A series of measures could reduce carbon emissions by 64.86 % (741.287 kt) through the electrification of gasoline vehicles, although the vehicle cost of electric vehicles would triple. If unmanned electric vehicles are used for the last mile of express delivery, the economic costs could decrease significantly by 77.77 % (US$36.693 billion), reducing the cost per express from US$0.436 down to US$0.097. Our study could provide a theoretical basis for the sustainable development and costs reduction of China's express delivery industry.