Global peak of international trade-induced CO2 transfers and drivers: From multiple perspectives

Trade-induced CO₂ transfers have increased the pressure on global carbon emission and may trigger carbon leakage. Understanding the peak status of these transfers is crucial for expediting global peaking process. This study investigates global CO₂ transfer peaks across production (transfers-in CO₂, TIC), intermediate processing (transmission CO₂, TRC), and consumption (transfers-out CO₂, TOC) during 2000–2019, and identifies main drivers. Our findings reveal a sustained increase in CO₂ transfers, particularly TRC (47.8 %). Meanwhile, discernible patterns emerge, with TIC and TRC rising in Global South but declining in Global North. TOC demonstrates a pattern marked by augmentation in both North and South. Furthermore, the results indicate that a minority of economies have already reached their peak in CO₂ transfers, with three economies peaking in TIC, six peaking in TRC, and two peaking in TOC. Further analysis reveals that production structure would be the primary driver of mitigating transfers. Additionally, carbon intensity in both power and non-power sectors can also contribute to mitigation. This is exemplified by the dampening effect exerted by carbon intensity of power sector on China's TIC during 2014–2019 (−8.5 Mt). Conversely, the international final trade scale propels CO₂ transfers in non-peaked economies. International cooperation in production technology and environmental cost are recommended to facilitate the peak of international trade-induced CO₂ transfers. These findings are valuable for global synergistic governance of trade-induced CO₂ transfers across production, processing, and consumption stages, as well as for mitigating carbon leakage.