利用多维动态贝叶斯网络评估城市交通系统的长期弹性

IF 7.3 1区工程技术 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI:10.1016/j.trd.2024.104427

Nanxi Wang , Min Wu , Kum Fai Yuen , Xueyi Gao

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引用次数: 0

摘要

人们日益认识到，抗灾能力对于应对破坏和维持城市交通系统（UTS）至关重要。然而，长期和动态的复原力研究还很缺乏。因此，本研究重新定义了抗灾能力，并为UTS开发了一个全面的动态长期抗灾能力评估模型。为了捕捉UTS的动态特征，我们构建了一个动态贝叶斯网络模型来探索系统的潜在学习能力。为了反映衡量系统恢复能力的多维度考虑，我们从四个维度（经济、环境、社会和技术）选取了领先指标。案例研究表明：1）UTS 复原力呈现动态特征；2）环境和技术指标增强了复原力；3）学习能力与复原力正相关；4）复原力并不总是与经济发展或城市 GDP 相关。所提出的研究框架为整合主观和客观数据提供了参考，而评估模型则为系统复原力的动态评估提供了指导。

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Urban transportation system long-term resilience assessment using multi-dimensional dynamic Bayesian network

Resilience has increasingly been recognized as crucial for coping with disruptions and sustaining urban transportation systems (UTSs). However, long-term and dynamic resilience research is lacking. Therefore, this study redefines resilience and develops a comprehensive dynamic long-term resilience assessment model for UTSs. To capture the dynamic characteristics of UTS, we constructed a dynamic Bayesian network model to explore the system’s latent learning ability. To reflect the multidimensional considerations in measuring system resilience, leading indicators from four dimensions (economic, environmental, social, and technological) are selected. Case studies reveal that 1) UTS resilience shows dynamic characteristics, 2) environmental and technical indicators enhance resilience, 3) learning capability is positively related to resilience, and 4) resilience does not always correlate with economic development or urban GDP. The proposed research framework offers a reference for integrating subjective and objective data, and the evaluation model serves as a guide for dynamic assessments of system resilience.

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来源期刊

Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment 工程技术-运输科技

CiteScore

14.40

自引率

9.20%

发文量

314

审稿时长

39 days

期刊介绍： Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment focuses on original research exploring the environmental impacts of transportation, policy responses to these impacts, and their implications for transportation system design, planning, and management. The journal comprehensively covers the interaction between transportation and the environment, ranging from local effects on specific geographical areas to global implications such as natural resource depletion and atmospheric pollution. We welcome research papers across all transportation modes, including maritime, air, and land transportation, assessing their environmental impacts broadly. Papers addressing both mobile aspects and transportation infrastructure are considered. The journal prioritizes empirical findings and policy responses of regulatory, planning, technical, or fiscal nature. Articles are policy-driven, accessible, and applicable to readers from diverse disciplines, emphasizing relevance and practicality. We encourage interdisciplinary submissions and welcome contributions from economically developing and advanced countries alike, reflecting our international orientation.