Long-range energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions analysis using the LEAP Model: A case study of building ceramic industrial park

The ceramic industry is acknowledged as a sector with high energy demands, with industrial parks serving as its primary product producers. Consequently, to explore the potential of the ceramics industry in carbon emission reduction and energy conservation, this study combined lifecycle energy demand with the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP). The analysis indicates that over the period from 2020 to 2040, the Technology Promotion (TP) scenario is poised to outperform the Low Carbon (LC) scenario in reducing energy consumption. Energy consumption may be reduced by 52 % in the LC scenario and 58 % in the TP scenario. Moreover, the TP scenario also demonstrates even greater efficacy in emissions reduction. In terms of greenhouse gas emissions, in 2040, the building ceramics industrial park is expected to generate 6.05 million tons of CO₂ in the Baseline (BS) scenario, 5.02 and 4.32 million tons of CO₂ in the LC and TP scenarios, respectively, which corresponds to a reduction of 17 %–30 %. It is expected that this study will fill knowledge gaps pertaining to energy efficiency potential in industrial park energy-intensive industries.