The role of agriculture for achieving renewable energy-centered sustainable development objectives in rural Africa

Multi-dimensional and overlapping barriers to wellbeing severely affect many areas in rural sub-Saharan Africa. In the region, more than 90% of cropland is rainfed, less than one third of households have electricity, almost 60% of the population reports food insecurity, and more than 35% of the population lives below the international poverty line. Climate change impacts on vulnerable systems with limited adaptive capacity and strong population growth are increasing the magnitude of these challenges, slowing and potentially reversing development. Thus, there is a strong need for multi-sector interventions across multiple levels, from national policies, to regional and river catchment-scale planning, to local planning and investment. To implement such actions, it is key not only to assess technological solutions and their investment needs, but also to appraise their feasibility and implementation potential (from both a policy and a financial point of view). Here, we implement a modelling platform (RE4AFAGRI platform), which soft-links bottom-up process-based water and energy demand and techno-economic infrastructure assessment models (WaterCROP, M-LED, OnSSET) into a multi-node, national Nexus-extended Integrated Assessment Model (MESSAGEix-Nexus) for supply and investment assessment. The results of our analysis shed light on the role of water and energy demand in the agricultural sector for jointly affecting infrastructure and investment requirements for achieving rural sustainable development objectives. We find that scenarios with increased ambition in expanding irrigation and agricultural productivity result in improved diffusion and economic feasibility of infrastructure to provide universal energy access while supporting productive uses of energy. Moreover, we conduct business model analysis to appraise the framework conditions and micro and macro determinants that can ensure feasibility of investment and uptake of small-scale infrastructure, crucial for rural development. Altogether, our research demonstrates how integrated modelling with an explicit focus on Nexus interlinkages can represent the enabling role and the business conditions for renewable energy input in agriculture to become a leverage of rural sustainable development. In turn, important policy and investment-relevant insights can be derived.