Prediction of intrapartum cesarean delivery among women with obesity: A retrospective cohort study

Objective

To determine risk factors and design a clinically based predictive model for the risk of intrapartum cesarean delivery (CD) in women with obesity.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted in a single tertiary medical center between 2012 and 2022 and included all consecutive women with a pre-gestational body mass index (BMI) ≥30 who planned a trial of labor. Uni- and multivariate analyses compared maternal and neonatal characteristics of women who delivered vaginally to those who underwent intrapartum CD. A specific risk prediction score was developed in accordance with the relative risk to predict the need for intrapartum CD.

Results

Of the 5663 women with obesity included in the study cohort, 424 (7.5%) underwent intrapartum CD and 5239 (92.5%) delivered vaginally. The independent risk factors for CD were maternal age >35 years, pre-gestational BMI category (BMI 35–40 and BMI >40), nulliparity, epidural anesthesia, induction of labor, antibiotic administration during labor, multiple gestation, previous uterine scar, and pre-eclampsia. The intrapartum CD prediction score model demonstrated predictive performance with 85% sensitivity and 70% specificity.

Conclusion

Score model for intrapartum CD can be used by caregivers to offer a more informed consultation to women with obesity facing the decision of mode of delivery.